Earlier this season, the Cubs and Brewers consummated an important deal that sent longtim Brewer ace Dwight Johnson to Chicago for COF/CIF prospect Matthew Hollins and pitching prospect Joaquin Villano.
At the time, many league pundits felt that the Cubs had overpaid for the 32-year old righthander, who is in his walk year and hasn't ever been as dominant as he was in Season One when he won Rookie of the Year and Cy Young in posting the best season in league history at 20-1 and helping the Brewers win the tougher National League and then the World Series.
Since the deal, the Cubs have locked up Johnson for three more years totaling nearly $17mm. So the folks in Chicago believe that Johnson can pitch at a high level for many more seasons.
Now that we're at the season's 3/4 pole, it's worth checking in on the deal.
Johnson is 13-4, matching last year's win total, and on pace for around 18 wins, which will certainly put him among the league leaders. His WHIP is a very respectable 1.29, but his ERA is hovering around 4 (3.99 at press time). This is almost certainly based on the fact that since Season Four (18 HR in 216 IP), Johnson has not been able to keep the ball in the ballpark as effectively, despite a rating of 81. This year, he's on pace to give up around 33 home runs, his third straight season north of 30. But ultimately, Johnson will be measured on whether or not he can pitch the Cubs to the playoffs, and can ge be depended on to matchup with the Cincinnati Studs on the mound. Historically, Johnson has pitched well against the Reds, generally earning a draw at the top of the rotation. But with his numbers trending down, he'll need to reach back for some of that old Brewers magic.
On the flip side, the two players that joined the Milwaukee organization are barely out of diapers. The key to the deal for the Brewers is Matthew Hollins, a 20-year old mustacheod slugger that projects as a 1B/COF player. While he needs to get better against RHP, he kills lefties, has great power, and is very selective at the plate. He can also run a little bit. The plan with Hollins was to have him play at AAA all season, and then join the big club in Season Eight. And in 158 ABs at AAA, Hollins had an OPS of .994. But with the Brewers challenged for runs early on, Hollins got the call and enjoyed modest success at the Big League level. Playing almost exclusively against lefties, Hollins has posted .309-7-26 numbers in 178 ABs. He has an OPS of .917 (OBP of .411) and has even swiped six bases. He still needs a couple more seasons of seasoning and then he may be ready to be a 30+ home run guy.
At 19, and with a longer road to hoe, Villano is a longer term prospect. Without a high-end pitch, there was some question about the fuss made over his inclusion of the deal. Still, the Brewers like to stockpile pitching depth, and Villano does have some nice upside. He has good control, is tough on both lefties and righties, and has decent velocity. In addition to not having a "plus" pitch, he also has trouble with the long ball. Although he was Cub property, Villano actually started his minor league career this year with the Brewers and was assigned to AA. As is the organizational philosophy, he pitched 100 innings as a starter at AA before the brass would conduct its first evaluation. Apparently, they saw something others did not, for with a 5-7 record and an ERA of 5.56 (1.66 WHIP), he was promoted to AAA where he was immediately installed as the #1 starter. There, the young Venezuelan has fared even worse. Though his record is 3-3, his ERA is 6.39 and his WHIP is 1.82. He's given up 7 homers in just 38 innings and opponents are hitting .359 against him. The hope is that Villano will improve more at the AAA level, and will be ready to join the Big Brewers after two more minor league seasons.
So overall, the trade is panning out much as it was advertised to start with. The built-to-win-now, contenting Cubs are getting a very solid performance from Dwight Johnson, and should continue to get 13-17 wins out of him for another three seasons. However, his performance is clearly in decline and the halcyon days of 20-1 are over.
On the flip side, the Hollins has been a surprise, if modest, contributor at the major league level for the Brewers, but is still two seasons away from being a middle-of-the-lineup anchor. Villano is 2-3 seasons away from any consideration of being called up.
So looking at the Trade Grader, we have to rate this one as: Even
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