20/10 Rule

Will try to explain the 20/10 rule and how it works with drafting, it also has other uses. Since my budget is 20 College and 6 High School, I will use Harry Ramos as the example. Harry was the first High School player on my board. With only 6 spent in scouting, you can't trust the projections, but the current ratings can be and that is the key.

First thing to look at is his current ratings. Since he is a pitcher I won't put in his fielding or hitting ratings but they do come into play a bit along with a few others for his total OVR. The first number is his current and the second is the scouts projected.

OVR: 48 - 84
Dur: 42 - 53
Hea: 97 - 100
Pat: 40 - 57
Mak: 66 - 79

Sta: 27 - 48
Ctl: 59 - 99
vsL: 59 - 95
vsR: 50 - 83
Pi1: 63 - 82
Pi2: 60 - 68
Pi3: 30 - 52

As you can see the OVR is a very large gap, almost 40, so that should tell you right away that he won't project to that. Now to implement the 20/10 rule. Any playing time bump will accumulate to about 20 points max through his first 3 years, any roll over bumps will increase about 10 points. Of course the 20/10 is not set in stone and can exceed those numbers depending on makeup, coaching and training. Applying the 20/10 rule I have his projections as such.

OVR: 48 - projected has to be ascertained by applying rule, but should be near 68
Dur: 42 - 52
Hea: 97 - 97 one this high do not consider much of an increase
Pat: 40 - 50
Mak: 66 - 76

Sta: 27 - 37
Ctl: 59 - 79
vsL: 59 - 79
vsR: 50 - 70
Pi1: 63 - 83
Pi2: 60 - 75
Pi3: 30 - 45

* One must take note of pitches because the added points depend on current quality and adjustments have to be made. Pitches usually decline and the added points decline also. But if there is an odd ordered set one must adjust accordingly. I usually use 20-15-15-10-10 as added points.

Once you have added the points in and see what his minimal OVR could be by finding a like player and don't forget to add in a point or two for fielding. Normally you can find one somewhere in the draft or like me can reasonably guess that it is about a 68 to 72. Makes for a pretty nice setup guy and I can put him where I feel is appropriate.

Now for his real numbers at 20 Advance scouting added in.

OVR: 48 - 70 - 77
Dur: 42 - 52 - 49
Hea: 97 - 97 - 98
Pat: 40 - 50 - 56
Mak: 66 - 76 - 75

Sta: 27 - 37 - 37
Ctl: 59 - 79 - 95
vsL: 59 - 79 - 92
vsR: 50 - 70 - 87
Pi1: 63 - 83 - 82
Pi2: 60 - 75 - 78
Pi3: 30 - 50 - 51

His control and splits will be better than I manually projected but chances of him reaching those actual projections are slim. I think his final OVR will be about 75, not far from my guess though. His original ranking on my board was about 4th, I had him manually ranked 10th, fifth in my pitching pool which was right.

I use this rule on current players using their 1st spring training numbers as the anchor. I am not saying it is accurate by any means because there are some ifs here and there that you have to know about but it does get close and always nice when exceeded.

Would I use this solely in a draft? Not at all, takes too long to figure out, especially when you need to look at 60 or 70 players to come up with the best 25. As it is I rank the top 100 and that takes about 45 minutes, then it takes another 45 minutes of fine tuning as it is. But more or less, I think this is one of the reasons a longer time was lobbied to rank players.