Thoughts

Here is the "tweak" and my thoughts on it.

Following the “end of the steroid era” update, the HR/G rate at the big league level continues to drop. At this point, it’s a bit below what we had projected. This update will bump the rate up a bit. Prior to the update, the HR/G for two teams was ~2.80. As of this week, it had fallen to ~2.02. We are striving for ~2.40. And, remember, the drop off is only at the top. Those power hitters that were hitting 80+ homers will come back to Earth a bit (with everyone else falling into place). This HR/G rate can be monitored on the World Snapshot page: http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Main/WorldSnapshot.aspx

I really think something unexpected happened that they didn't think would happen. If you had a guy that had 90+ (85+ even) power but the rest of his hitting ratings were mediocre at best, he could still hit up to 50 home runs a season. If he was a decent enough catcher it would be a big help to any team. Some of them were 1B's that had maybe 35's across in their defensive ratings. Some were even hidden in RF. Even though these guys would average .230 to .255 a season and maybe less, their HR production would produce enough to cover their fielding problems. Think about it, 100 hits a season, half of them or more HR's, some of the rest doubles. Their run production would be near or over 100 easily.

Basically this was taken away in three ways. First they lowered the HR rate for those types of players. Then came the error rate/plus/minus play. Third was a boost in SB's. Suddenly those players had no place in the game. So they were moved to out of the way places, like the minors. To take their places were those good non-power defensive speed hitters who didn't have a place to play because of the power guys. Thinking about everything, it may have put 30 to 40 players or more out of a job.

Some crafty owners realized that the stats they garner for the report look like they are based on neutral parks. So at world rollover, they moved to a more hitter friendly place if the pitching staff could handle it.

Of course the rate of HRs per game is going to drop off drastically after all that, especially owners that saw what was happening quickly. What WIS was searching for in their quest probably was perfect for about 30 or 40 games. After that was an unexpected rate drop that probably had them scratching their heads. So to fix what they wanted to see was to tweak the rate upwards. Maybe leaving it alone would have been a better idea, giving more time for the owners to adapt before saying it was too low.

So was the "tweak" good enough to put those players back in play? To me I kind of doubt it.

As for this world it may look like the HR rate is up but one must look at the overall picture so far after the "tweak". After looking at the top 25 HR leaders I really don't see anyone out of place. The HR total for players look up but one must look at where they play also. The Las Vegas ones bothered me the most, but 2/3 of their HR's have been hit on the road in more favorable conditions which is normal. Yes, Texas is a better place to hit than Houston and what can you say about the "Tard Parks" in Colorado and Durham. As for the Indians who have almost hit the fewest and given up the fewest. The best hitter friendly parks we have been to this season so far is Atlanta and Philly which isn't saying much. But with three games in Colorado, Chicago and Houston in the next 20 things could change.