Six seasons removed from their unexpected World Series triumph of Season One, the Brewers are a team in transition. Only three players remain from those heady days - C Nerio Ford, LF Ramon Dong and Closer Victor Blanco.
However, if you think the Brewers are in an all-out rebuilding mode, you'd be wrong. And that's why experts say this team suffers from an identity crisis.
Having traded away organizational pillars such as Clarence McPhersonand Season One Cy Young Award winner Dwight Johnson for a quivver of promising prospects, the team seemingly handed all of the important jobs to the Kiddie Korps.
However, many believe that the purge was incomplete. The Brewers held onto Ford, who, though coming off of an All-Star, Silver Slugger performance, also is 30 and is in his walk year. The team has a long track record of allowing its older free agents to bolt.
The team also held onto the 29-year old Dong, who has $23mm remaining on his pact (though next season is a $12mm option). Dong is also coming off of an All-Star season, and is one of the most reliable performers in the league. Still, one wonders if he'll be among the first to go should the Brewers stumble out of the gate.
Fueling the criticism was the Brewers' approach to filling out their roster. The team drafted three Rule V players to play important roles. At the same time, Milwaukee spent more than $10mm to add a fading set-up man (35-year old Gene Chase) and an inconsistent starter (28-year old Roy Hall).
That said, here's the season outlook:
GM and Manager: Dilo (7th season, 592-380, .609, 1 WS title, 2 Div. Titles, 3 Wild Cards)
Last Season: 88-74, 3rd place in NL North; missed playoffs for first time
Season Seven Prediction: 81-81, 3rd place; out of playoffs
Could be better if: Young ML veterans like Jerzembeck and Berroa show marked improvement; new starters keep ERAs under 4.33.
Could be worse if: No second reliable starter emerges, younger offensive players remain inconsistent.
Team Song: "April Come She Will"
Milwaukee Brewers - Position-by-Position Breakdown
Catcher
Nerio Ford returns for what could be his last season as a Brewer. Will be hard pressed to repeat last season's .340-39-128 line, but his OPS has been north of 1.000 for four straight seasons. James Harais a defensive backup that can hit lefties, but should yield to AAA prospect Hector Ramirez(15 HR in 150 ABs at AAA last year) at some point this season.
First Base
At 23, the 6'9" Pedro Jamesalready enters his fourth season as a Major Leaguer. His production last year dropped off, as his OPS fell to .906 from .982. Still, he belted 24 HR and had 103 RBI. Needs to improve his BB-to-K ratio, and has the eye to do it.
Second Base
Enigmatic Pascual Berroais the incumbent starter here, coming off a season where his OPS dropped 80 points and his OBP dropped nearly 50. At 24 and with multiple tools, the Brewers hope he can improve both numbers and give the team a more dependable bat in the lineup. The backup is former Rule V player Giovanni King, who at 23 is a great glove man and can run like the wind.
Shortstop
Once thought to be an organizational staple, 25-year old Wes Kelly, the teams first 1st-round pick, has seemingly fallen out of favor. The team first chose to take Kelly to arbitration, and then selected 28-year old gloveman Matt Wise in the Rule V draft to play against righthanders. Kelly's OPS dropped 60 points last season as his HR total dropped from 10 to five. Though his defense improved and he stole 17 bases, his OBP was a dreadful .326. Wise is making his ML debut after some very good years in the Florida system.
Third Base
After spending several seasons of penciling in McPherson for 45 HRs and 100+ RBI, the team now has huge question marks at the corner. 24-year old Miguel Estalella(.753 OPS in 285 ABs as a rookie last year) and 22-year old Harold Traynor, a Rule V pick who played in High A ball last year, will platoon.
Center Field
The team is turning to 23-year old Gregg Presleythis year. Presley played the second half of last season in the majors after recovering from a bad injury the year before. He had a respectable .770 OPS in his 233-AB audition. The team believes Presley can become a better baserunner and give them a threat at the top of the lineup.
Left Field
What else can you say about Dong's Season Six? His line of .345-24-85 was made even better by an OBP of .428 and 19 stolen bases. At 29, experts wonder, though, if he is on the decline already. The backup is utilityman Ryan Owenswho at 28 continues to be a valuable player. Though he's more suited to play against lefthanders, Owens seems to crack the lineup a few times per week and has responded with 107 SBs (caught 32 times) in 1,115 ABs as a Brewer. He's a bargain at $625,000. Rule V pick Brandon Meyersis also in the mix and puts the ball in play against righties.
Right Field
Arguably the crown jewel of the organization's rebuilding efforts, 23-year old Zachrey Jerzembeck already has 1325 Major League ABs, and has a career OPS of .927. Last year, he went .283-33-105, but saw big drops in his average, OBP and RBI. He stole 16 bases last year (39 career), but was also caught 15 times. To contend, the Brewers need Jerzembeck to contribute a lot of lineup protection for Dong, Ford and James.
Starting Pitching
The emergence last season of Donald Satou(17-5, 3.20), made dealing former ace Johnson more palatable. Johnson was coming off a career low 12 wins with a 4.35 ERA, and was in the last season of a deal paying him $5.6mm. Still, he's a former Cy Young winner that had a strong track record against some of the better pitchers in the division. After Satou, the rotation gets murky.
Jumbo Benitez(career 51 starts, 18-22, 5.77) is a former first round pick that spent just two seasons in the minors. His stuff is ordinary. Cookie Sardinhais 24 and made just 14 starts in the minors before jumping to the Big Club. He's 15-11 in 222 career IP, but with a 5.38 ERA and 33 HRs allowed. Number Four in the rotation is 21-year old Edgard Espinosa, a former #7 overall pick (Angels) who was picked up in a trade. Espinosa had 12 wins at AAA last year and struck out 153 in 173 IP. Rounding out the rotation is Hall, who was brought back to the organization to try to live up to the high expectations set for him in Season One. He's made just 26 starts in his career.
Bullpen
The bullpen discussion begins and ends with Blanco, who just had his contract extended for two seasons. At 26, that seems a good bet, but he's had a tendency to alternate good seasons and bad ones. Last year was a good one, as Blanco converted 25 of 26 saves and walked just seven men and gave up four HRs in 34+ IP. He's no workhorse, though, and his innings need to be kept down. Setting him up for the first time will be Harry Owen, who at 25 is already entering his fifth season with the Big Club. Owen is a swingman, a converted starter who can eat up the 7th and 8th innings, but will have to improve on his career ERA of 5.01. Assisting Owen will be Chase, who is 35, but pitched 135 innings for Atlanta last season with a 3.80 ERA. After three stellar seasons in relief, 29-year old lefthander Roy Gibsonsaw his ERA balloon to 6.71. He allowed 71 hits in 51 IP after allowing just 138 in the previous 137 IP. Patrick Snyder, a swingman with a career record of 28-16, will need his best season to-date. Young Sergei Maurerhad a solid AAA career and is learning to be a Major League pitcher working in long relief.
The Brewers are expected to make a deal for another arm, or to reach into their AAA team, where they have some long relief and set-up candidates.
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