Friday, May 23, 2008

Amazin' Grace? Mets On The Up

After a season when the Mets finished second in the NL East after years in the basement, some fans still jeered them off the field.

True, a defeat to the Pirates might have seen them bump up the draft pick list a little, but these Mets are young and hungry and playing to lose was not, and never will be, an option.

Spring has seen a lot of experimentation, and has only one major blight with CF stud Kirby Priddy injured (though he should be back by opening day.) Priddy leads the charge of a new youthful side with speed and cunning on their side, if not the discipline and average to make much of an improvement on last year.

And of course, there's the rotation... The bullpen held its own last year, and closer Oscar Ford led by example, as a veteran should, shaving big points from his ERA (from a whopping 9.30 to 3.15) even if his saves total remained about the same. In a walk year, and with younger prospect close to stepping up to challenge for his role, the pressure will be on Ford to keep it up and steady the relievers pool.

ROTATION

Hawk Reed is now a genuine #1 starter. His ERA went from 6.24 to 4.54 last season and he won 18 games - ten more than last year. Jorel Woodson also brought down his ERA (from 5.98 to 4.62) but would still benefit from honing off his rough edges before pitching regularly. Olmedo Moreno was a nice Rule V pick-up, but has his best years yet to come. Ditto flamethrower Leon Jackson, who might find himself back in the Bigs when he should be in AAA getting his game together. With no real competition ahead of him, Douglas Miller might find himself as #3 and could be a surprise package after a fine showing last year.

C

Dale Washington was a big influence in helping the pitching last year. As a veteran, his savvy is better than probable first choice Miller Boyd, but his hitting makes him a borderline liability. That said, he managed to hit .320 in the 17 games he played.

1B

Joey Yount will play what will almost certainly be his last year as a Met (and probably as a pro) at first base, rather than his more familiar LF position. And even then, he will probably be second choice behind one of the team's many young utility players, led by Jorge Nieves, Troy Meyers, Andres Colon, Ariel Flores and Tony Duran.

2B

Tony Valenzuela has spent time this spring filling in for the injured Priddy, and still has some of the wheels that made him a CF favorite at Shea. His place is more directly under threat from the ML ready Priddy, and with the host of young players fighting to make an impression in the infield, it's hard to see him starting often, barring injuries.

3B

Randy Lamb has hit his peak going into this season, but for his 45 dingers last year his average fell to .237. There was some upside as he added 25 stolen bases (but 18 CS's) but his stick is still too streaky to keep his place unchallenged. Again, the ML-ready prospects will be all over the hot corner if Lamb can't get on base and/or clear them up at the plate.

SS

Luis Guerrero made great strides last year and will make the shortstop position his to lose. Colon and Flores will be the best choices to back him up, but Guerrero ought to improve further rather than feel any heat.

LF

Albert Chavez is hardly slowing down and has played at least 151 games a year in his Mets career. Tony Duran's natural position is at LF, but his speed and baserunning skills (96 SBs last year) might see him come off the bench to win close games while Chavez is still swinging some mean lumber.

CF

Kirby Priddy will be in center for the next decade if the Mets front office has anything to say about it.

RF

Ariel Flores might have been the opening day starter if not for Troy Meyers' spring. He's showed a good eye and some hot heels and could have found himself a new home (from 2B last year.)

PREDICTION

Predicting 76 wins last season could have been seen as optimistic. In fact, the Mets took 78 and, as predicted, it was good enough to finish runners-up in the NL East - but not good enough for the Wild Card. Another starter would make all the difference between finishing second or third and putting together a genuine challenge to Atlanta and taking the title. If the Mets continue to build up prospects, they could put together a package ahead of the deadline that could change the balance of power in New York's direction.

No comments: