Monday, June 29, 2009

20/10 Rule

Will try to explain the 20/10 rule and how it works with drafting, it also has other uses. Since my budget is 20 College and 6 High School, I will use Harry Ramos as the example. Harry was the first High School player on my board. With only 6 spent in scouting, you can't trust the projections, but the current ratings can be and that is the key.

First thing to look at is his current ratings. Since he is a pitcher I won't put in his fielding or hitting ratings but they do come into play a bit along with a few others for his total OVR. The first number is his current and the second is the scouts projected.

OVR: 48 - 84
Dur: 42 - 53
Hea: 97 - 100
Pat: 40 - 57
Mak: 66 - 79

Sta: 27 - 48
Ctl: 59 - 99
vsL: 59 - 95
vsR: 50 - 83
Pi1: 63 - 82
Pi2: 60 - 68
Pi3: 30 - 52

As you can see the OVR is a very large gap, almost 40, so that should tell you right away that he won't project to that. Now to implement the 20/10 rule. Any playing time bump will accumulate to about 20 points max through his first 3 years, any roll over bumps will increase about 10 points. Of course the 20/10 is not set in stone and can exceed those numbers depending on makeup, coaching and training. Applying the 20/10 rule I have his projections as such.

OVR: 48 - projected has to be ascertained by applying rule, but should be near 68
Dur: 42 - 52
Hea: 97 - 97 one this high do not consider much of an increase
Pat: 40 - 50
Mak: 66 - 76

Sta: 27 - 37
Ctl: 59 - 79
vsL: 59 - 79
vsR: 50 - 70
Pi1: 63 - 83
Pi2: 60 - 75
Pi3: 30 - 45

* One must take note of pitches because the added points depend on current quality and adjustments have to be made. Pitches usually decline and the added points decline also. But if there is an odd ordered set one must adjust accordingly. I usually use 20-15-15-10-10 as added points.

Once you have added the points in and see what his minimal OVR could be by finding a like player and don't forget to add in a point or two for fielding. Normally you can find one somewhere in the draft or like me can reasonably guess that it is about a 68 to 72. Makes for a pretty nice setup guy and I can put him where I feel is appropriate.

Now for his real numbers at 20 Advance scouting added in.

OVR: 48 - 70 - 77
Dur: 42 - 52 - 49
Hea: 97 - 97 - 98
Pat: 40 - 50 - 56
Mak: 66 - 76 - 75

Sta: 27 - 37 - 37
Ctl: 59 - 79 - 95
vsL: 59 - 79 - 92
vsR: 50 - 70 - 87
Pi1: 63 - 83 - 82
Pi2: 60 - 75 - 78
Pi3: 30 - 50 - 51

His control and splits will be better than I manually projected but chances of him reaching those actual projections are slim. I think his final OVR will be about 75, not far from my guess though. His original ranking on my board was about 4th, I had him manually ranked 10th, fifth in my pitching pool which was right.

I use this rule on current players using their 1st spring training numbers as the anchor. I am not saying it is accurate by any means because there are some ifs here and there that you have to know about but it does get close and always nice when exceeded.

Would I use this solely in a draft? Not at all, takes too long to figure out, especially when you need to look at 60 or 70 players to come up with the best 25. As it is I rank the top 100 and that takes about 45 minutes, then it takes another 45 minutes of fine tuning as it is. But more or less, I think this is one of the reasons a longer time was lobbied to rank players.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Draft Review

With the new rules in place, did some take advantage of the Type D compensation in the first 3 rounds? Out of 7 drafts so far since the change, this is the best one I have seen. There seemed to be a theme with left handed starting pitchers though.

1. Mark James - Oklahoma City Kevin Durants, P: The best starting pitcher in the draft, no doubt about it. Has the control, splits and 5 pitches. The only slight drawback is his patience (every player has one I think). Cy Young awards should be in his future.
Grade: A+
ORG: A+ SWEET pickup in the supplemental

2. Bill Lloyd - Washington D.C. Senators, CF: Power hitting lefty CF with good eye and contact. Glove may be too weak for the position though. Health is borderline, but these days I am not sure it is a problem.
Grade: A
ORG: B+ The second round pick was fantastic

3. Vladimir Melendez - Texas Rangers, SS: An outstanding power hitting defensive SS. Has all the tools to be a MVP at the position. Best position player in the draft.
Grade: A+
ORG: A+ Outstanding draft if the first round pick signs and lives up to the pick

4. Santo Martin - Salt Lake City Multiple Spouses, CF: Doesn't have the glove or the range for the scouted CF or drafted 2B position. Best position could be 3B even with his somewhat weak arm. No sneaking a bad pitch by him with his eye and has good power and contact. Splits are a little weak but won't matter.
Grade: A

5. Raymond Barr - Detroit Detroit, CF: Scouts have him listed as a CF, Detroit lists him as a LF. He projects to a GG CF by the way. Has a powerful gold swing with contact to match and his eye will make sure it is a hole in one. Biggest drawback is his patience.
Grade: A
ORG: B- 2nd pick is over the top, 3rd was decent but downhill from there

6. Willie Izquierdo - Helena Hot Pockets, P: A right handed fly ball power starting pitcher with very good control and splits. Pitches are good but might be a tad weak with only 3 in the stable.
Grade: A
Org: C even if first pick signs

7. Felipe Mendoza - Los Angeles Duffers, LF: Unknown
Org: B- Not overly thrilled with some of the pitching prospects

8. Eric LaRocca - Vancouver Canadians, LF: Can someone say power hitting lead off? Eye might be a little weak but the rest is there. Range is problematic even at LF.
Grade: A
ORG: A+ if the 2nd pick signs

9. Herman Stark - Philadelphia Athletics, P: Left hand end of rotation starting pitcher which means a weak vsR and low stamina. However, with the GB, control and those pitches, it may not matter much.
Grade: A
ORG: C tried to find pitching and didn't succeed.

10. Kirk Donnels - New York Yankees, SS: A power hitting SS. Power hitting is definite, a SS is another matter. Glove and arm is a little weak even with the range, is good enough for CF. I wouldn't put him anywhere else though unless his projections don't pan out and that could put him at 2B or 3B for sure.
Grade: A
ORG: C Was not overly thrilled with the power hitters for old Yankee Stadium but when the NEW Yankee stadium hits, may change the grade of this draft. That is thinking ahead.

11. Clinton Cedeno - New York Mets, P: A left handed starting pitcher with somewhat weak vsR, probably 4th. Like Stark it probably won't matter with the GB, control and 5 pretty good pitches. Health could be an issue.
Grade: B+
ORG: B may have lucked out with the 3rd round pick and 2nd is iffy but good pen help after.

12. Neifi Montana - Omaha Lancers, P: Another left handed starting pitcher with somewhat weak vsR but is a very possible number 1 or 2. Has the GB, control and 5 nice pitches.
Grade: A
ORG: A if the second pick signs will improve to an A+, 5th round pick was a steal.

13. Bill Saunders - Austin Fightin' Armadillos, P: 2nd best right handed starting pitcher in the draft and possible number 3 slot. Has the GB, super control, splits and 5 good pitches.
Grade: A

14. Darren Cambridge - Tampa Bay Rays, SS: A possible GG defensive SS. Has a somewhat weak eye and splits are a bit below average but does have some power and very high contact. Is that a good fit for Tampa stadium?
Grade: B
ORG: B Went after pitching and did well

15. Peter Alexander - El Paso Czars, SS: Another outstanding power hitting defensive SS. I may have said Melendez was the best pick but not by much. Melendez may hit more home runs but Peter will have a better average or should. Both are going to be competing for the best SS all through their careers.
Grade: A+
ORG: A If the rest get signed.

16. Keith O'Neill - Florida Marlins, P: Maybe he won't sign and that could be helpful in a way. Another of those left handers that seemed to be a theme with this draft. He doesn't exactly stack up to the others though.
ORG: B even with the first being doubtful the rest were pretty good.

17. Pedro Saez - Toronto Blue Jays, C: Defensively good behind the plate but lacks the pitch calling to be considered a first rate catcher. As a DH he doesn't have the overwhelming power at the plate but is fantastic as a catcher. Can we say mixed reviews!
Grade: B

18. Randy Burkett - Trenton Ball Hogs, RF: Range could be a little weak but has a good arm for RF. Has great eye and splits but limited in power and contact.
Grade: B
ORG: A some very nice picks

19. Mike Hunt - Las Vegas 51s, P: If it wasn't for his health I would say he would be a good first round pick. If he survives the minors and the jokes, could turn into a first rate pitcher.
Grade: B
ORG: A- Just because I didn't like the first pick....

20. Trace Wallace - Cleveland Indians, 3B : Possible GG and SilSlug 3B in the making. Good eye, high splits, exceptional power and enough contact pitchers will pitch to him.
Grade: A
ORG: B+ went after short pen help and succeeded

21. David Gomez - Pittsburgh Pirates, 2B: 2B is a reach and health is an issue. Has a good eye and vsR is a little weak but does have lots of power and contact.
Grade: B
ORG: A- went after pitching help and did a good job

22. Albert Paronto - Milwaukee Brewers, P: Left handed starting pitcher that could be a project.
Grade: B+
ORG: B- two better picks later but for the most part iffy

23. Randall Frederick - Cincinnati Reds, C: Weak defensively and would make a better DH. However the power hitting numbers are there to make him a viable option.
Grade: B+
ORG: C+ all those picks and wasn't exactly overwhelming

24. Vicente Alicea - Dover Dung Beetles, SS: A possible GG SS but his hitting will probably make him a bench warmer. Can we say "Red Herring".
Grade: C
ORG: ummm scouting? need to spend more or get help using current ratings and 20/10 rule

25. Johnny Brown - Chicago Cubs, CF: CF is probably out with the range issues. Has the speed and hitting ability to be a lead off hitter if he can stay off the DL.
Grade: B-
ORG: B+ at least the following picks look better.

26. Lorenzo Osuna - Las Vegas 51s, SS: Scouts tell me he isn't a SS and maybe a 3B. Shows to have very good eye, splits and power but contact is lacking.
Grade: A better second pick

27. Zeke Little - Houston Astros, C: Defensively a mess, has the PC but catching the ball and throwing out runners will be interesting. When it comes to hitting, one might want to stand on that upper promenade at the juice box as you will have a better chance of catching anything he hits. Does that make him a viable option? umm...maybe
Grade: B+
ORG: C+ too many unseen HS players wanting too much money maybe

28. Wilt McCracken - Anaheim Angels, 2B: Range is a little short to be real good at 2B. Hitting is a decently above average all the way around.
Grade: B+
ORG: B- overall average players

29. Harry Ramos - Atlanta Pork-N-Beans, P: Right handed pitcher that could be a shut down closer with the 3 pitch stable or could be used as long setup. Exceptional control, spits with some nice pitches.
Grade: A
ORG: ? depends if the organization is willing to part with big bucks

30. Hong-Chih Hasegawa - Los Angeles Duffers, P: I am not overly thrilled with low control, high split pitchers but this guy could be good.
Grade: B-

31. Matty Venafro - St. Louis Barracudas, LF: Pretty good defensively. Hitting is not overwhelming.
Grade: B
ORG: B- overall average players

32. Trevor Thompson - Chicago Cubs, SS: Defensive abilities may not make projections as they have a long way to go. Hitting abilities are in the same boat. One never knows though and could turn into a good player.
Grade: C

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Unprecedented Move

Big rumblings was heard today in AA ball as the Cleveland coaching staff threatened to quit. Details are somewhat sketchy but it was apparent that the walk out was averted after 3 hours of management negotiations. What happened after the sit down was unprecedented, as Cleveland management suddenly moved all the Low A position players to AA and sent the AA squad to Low A. The move also included this years first round pick, Trace Wallace. Bart Ross, who has been MIA at the AA level as of late, was the only player spared the indignity as he was sent to AAA and greeted fans with a 2 for 4 effort.

Tonights game was sold out as fans jammed the stadium to actually see potential stars in action as opposed to the rejects that had lined the roster. The North leading Brewers were in town, who laughed and joked about the move before the game. After the game, the Brewers had a bewildered look as the new look Cleveland bunch pounded out 19 hits in their 14-6 winning debut.

The Draft

The Indians drafted 20th and got the 3rd best position player on their board. I was surprised to say the least. My thinking was that I would maybe get my 4th or 5th ranked players at best, both of them actually fell all the way to the supplemental round. The first two position players on my board went in the top 10, so it wasn't a case of poor ranking.

The best starting pitcher on my board went #1. I didn't think he would go that high, but did expect him in the top 5 or 6. After my first 5 position players I had 12 pitchers, 7 of them starters. I had actually expected to get one of the starters drafting 20th. I was surprised that only two were off the board when my turn came around. The rest went late first round to early 2nd round. That left me with the relievers that I wanted with the second and third picks though.

The biggest reason the players on my board fell where they did was the High School players. All the other drafts I have been in had been somewhat light in this area. Since the others had been light, I kind of expected the same here.

As for the formula builder, several of us have come to the conclusion that its purpose was to rank position players or pitchers but not both at the same time. Even tickets sent in has kind of eluded to same the conclusion. I have used the formula builder one time for the draft, it had very weak pitching so it was simple to put them back where they belonged but other than that, the old way is easier to me.

After studying the top 25 players in each of my drafts this go round I have come to some conclusions. For one, each teams draft board is actually geared for organizational needs whether you like it or not. All you have to figure out is which player is the best, especially in the first round. That is why most go with the best player available, but (always one) you must make sure he is.

As for scouting, it is personal choice. They say High School players advance more rapidly than college players. That is actually a smoking mirror, as their projections usually have a bigger disparity, the system is designed to close the gap and to do that bigger increases are needed. After the first three seasons, chances are a High School player and a College player with the same projections will probably look identical. The College player will have a slight advantage in maturity where the High School player will play longer at the ML level, though his first couple seasons could be underachieving.

I have wondered how a GM could draft a good player without spending much on scouting. After much contemplation and heavy use of a calculator I have found the answer and can now do it by sight. Though, the answer could be for naught, as they have figured out how it is done also and may close that hole. Then again if they do that, you might as well close yours eyes and guess.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Power Rankings

1. Durham Bulls - Over the 1st 43 games they have managed to score almost 100 more runs than anyone else in the league. Impressive.

2. Cincinnati Reds - Can we get some sort of fake fantasy plane accident that takes out the Reds?

3. Houston Astros - Impressive start, but you have to wonder how the loss of ace Omar Elcano is going to effect the team.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Finally living up to the hype. Damn good team that I expect will eventually over take the mighty Reds in the NL north.

5. Monterrey Corn Dogs - Unfortunate for the Corn Dogs that they play in the same division in the Bulls. Very good team though that has a nice combination of great pitching and hitting.

HOF Voting

Hall Inductees:
Maybe Next Season:

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

It Is That Time of The Seson Again

The Draft Pool cometh!!! Has everyone looked over their minors to see what the needs are to complement your Major League team? I have and with the 20th pick it is highly doubtful the player I need will be there. If this draft pool is like the last four I have had, it will be a rude awakening to everyone.

I have been through three drafts and four draft pools (think the last pool was undrafted players from the previous three) so far since the big change. Everyone has gotten a good first pick, but after that there just isn't much. Since they changed the OVR for pitchers, they didn't fix the draft pool to compensate is the biggest problem. Have you ever seen a draft with just one pitcher taken in the first 10 picks? I have seen it twice now. Middle relievers have had better ratings than starters for the most part. The Starters haven't really been all that good even for the old middle first round picks. The good Setup/Closers have been relegated to the third and fourth rounds as opposed to late first round, supplemental, and early second round if you can even find a decent one.

Most don't like the Formula Builder either as the old way is more preferred. It takes some tinkering to find the right mix with the formula.

Happy Draft Pool everyone!

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

HOF Nominees - Position Players

Position Players:

Ramon Dong
BA - .332
Hits - 2132
HR - 242
RBI - 1123
Runs - 1393
SB - 128

1 WS Ring
6 Time All Star
2 Time Silver Slugger
1 Gold Glove
3rd All Time Hits
3rd All Time Runs

Roosevelt Stevenson
BA - .302
Hits - 1972
HR -530
RBI - 1479
Runs - 1325
SB - 27

3 Time All Star
2 Time Silver Slugger
2 All Time HR
1st All Time RBI

Andrew Spencer
BA - .319
Hits - 1534
HR - 418
RBI - 1188
Runs - 1045
SB - 0

1 All Star

Posiedon Warden
BA - .324
Hits - 1945
HR - 237
RBI - 1006
Runs - 1396
SB - 212

2 WS Rings
4 Time All Star
1 Silver Slugger
2nd All Time Runs

Javier Santayana
BA - .313
Hits - 1889
HR - 253
RBI - 1039
Runs - 1249
SB - 457

4 Time All Star
1 Gold Glove
1 Silver Slugger
3rd All time SB

HOF Nominees - Pitchers


Britt Swindell
Starts - 294
W - 158
L - 54
ERA - 3.53
K - 1767

4 - WS Rings
3 Time CY Young
6 Time All Star
4th All Time in Strikeouts
2nd All Time in Winning Percentage

Dwight Johnson
Starts - 353
W - 166
L - 79
ERA - 3.73
K - 1685

2 WS Rings
1 CY Young
5 Time All Star
3rd All Time Wins
5th All Time Strikeouts

Bryan McDowell
Saves - 352
Save % - 89%
W - 24
L - 28
ERA - 2.94
K - 510

1 WS Ring
6 Time Fireman of the Year
7 Time All Star
2nd All Time Saves

Bruce Shelley
Saves - 232
Save % - 84%
W - 48
L - 47
ERA - 4.09
K - 557

1 Fireman of the Year
4 Time All Star

Mitchell Ray
Saves - 359
Save % - 89%
W - 25
L - 30
ERA - 3.29
K - 537

3 WS Rings
4 Time Fireman of the Year
7 Time All Star
1st All Time Saves

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Hot Pocket Preview

C - This is a strength again for the Hot Pockets. Jerome Webb and Jeffrey Fleming will platoon.

1st - Jamey Perez returns as your not so normal quick, contact oriented 1st baseman. I'm in the market for a power hitting 1st baseman.

2nd - Last year's Rule V starter Phil Ganzel will play a backup role to the new kid on the block Orber Quixote.

3rd - A trade to dump an arb eligible player brought me Jeff Figga to play some 3rd base.

SS - This is the beginning of my great wave of young SS. Oscar Miller will start and Larry Williams will backup and provide speed and defence on the bench.

OF - Our bedrock is Lee Coleman and will be joined by slugger Doug Wise and Marcus Lewis or Cyrus Rakers.

Pitching is always the weak spot of the Hot Pockets...and continues.
Benji Alfonseca, Carlos Espinoza, Al Blanco, Orlando Delgado and Miguel Mercedes will start the year as the rotation...we'll go from there.

The pen will include:
Brady Garcia, Russ Thomas, Oswaldo Felix, Jim Smart, Jerry Goodwin, Daryn Lambert, John Savage and Earle Magadan

The Hot Pockets will yet again struggle to get into contention with a young bunch of hooligans whilst signing a bunch of IFAs...building for Season 15!

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

The Fire Preseason Rankings

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Milwaukee Brewers

Will be very tight race and 2 wild cards again?

1. Atlanta Pork-N-Beans
2. Trenton Ball Hogs
3. Cleveland Indians
4. New York Mets

With the early season injury in Trenton the Injuns could take 2nd agian.

1. Houston Astros
2. El Paso Czars
3. Florida Marlins
4. Texas Rangers

The merengue could out duel the two steppers before it is over!

1. Kansas City Royals
2. Vancouver Canadians
3. Oklahoma City Kevin Durants
4. Los Angeles Duffers

The crown could actually head north of the border this year.

1. St. Louis Barracudas
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Detroit Detroit
4. Salt Lake City Multiple Spouses

A real fight is brewing between the top 3 teams in my estimation.

1. Dover Dung Beetles
2. Philadelphia Athletics
3. Washington D.C. Senators
4. New York Yankees

A Yank-less playoff for the first time last year, it looks bleaker for them this year as the rest are getting better.

1. Monterrey Corn Dogs
2. Durham Bulls
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Austin Fightin' Armadillos

The meek shall inherit the crown, yet again.

1. Omaha Lancers
2. Las Vegas 51s
3. Helena Hot Pockets
4. Anaheim Angels

Have a boil? Omaha is ready!

Best Playoff Guess with surprises!
1. Atlanta Pork-N-Beans
2. Houston Astros
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Vancouver Canadians
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Trenton Ball Hogs

1. St. Louis Barracudas
2. Monterrey Corn Dogs
3. Dover Dung Beetles
4. Omaha Lancers
5. Toronto Blue Jays
6. Durham Bulls

Monday, June 1, 2009

NL Power Rankings

1. Cincinnati Reds - Can they win 4 in a row? The loss of Paulie Sanders hurts their chances, but the Reds should be near the top of the NL.

2. Houston Astros - Quite possibly the best overall team in the NL. Everett Hill is quite possibly the best hitter in league history. Heinie Watkins, Sid Bryant, and Russell Relaford are pretty good too.

3. Milwaukee Brewers - Already one the best rotations in the league.....before the addition of Mike Leius. Good chance they win title #2 this season.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Finally turned the corner last season, but still finished 4th in their division.

5. Atlanta Pork N Beans - Blah.

6. Chicago Cubs - Dwight Johnson and his prostitute sister are still hanging in there. Cubs are still a very good team.

7. Cleveland Indians - Last season was the franchises first season over .500 ever. Wouldn't be surprised if they overtook the PnBs for the NL East title this season.

8. Kansas City Royals - Yoker is going for his 3rd straight division title this season. The real question is will Yoker go for 4 straight team name and city changes next season? I am going to go ahead and engrave Jesse Brennaman name on the ROY trophy.

9. Trenton Ball Hogs - Trenton has improved their winning percentage in each of the last four seasons. Impressive. Its only a matter of time before Pedro DeSoto wins a CY Young.

10. Florida Marlins - Finally have a good owner of this franchise. This team is absolutely stacked with talented prospects. Not quite there yet, but I have a feeling they will be extremely good in a few seasons.

11. El Paso Czars - Harnaldo takes over were Xubrad left off. Team is actually pretty decent shape. I could see them finishing better than .500.

12. Vancouver Canadians - Paulie Sanders should be a nice addition.

13. Los Angels Duffers - Cmfrtblynumb takes over for Weo. Team really needs pitching help. Not sure the addition of Victor Guzman is enough.

14. New York Mets - The team has some solid young players, but the pitching isn't very impressive.

15. Texas Rangers - Still a project. Good young players, but not much in the way of pitching.

16. Oklahoma City Kevin Durants - Definitely stocked up their farm system. Time to start winning (or least winning more than 30% of their games).