Saturday, January 31, 2009

PlayOffs Round 2

#5 Las Vegas Slobs vs #1 Monterrey Corn Dogs - The Slobs swept the Yanks, I really expected the Yanks to win at least one. Season series 7-3 in favor of the Corn Dogs. One thing to note about the season series is the fact the Slobs were 3-3 in Monterrey and the four game sweep by Monterrey occurred early in the season. That means the opening series could be a split even though the Corn Dogs are well rested. The Slobs will need to win at home to have a chance. Monterrey is favored 3-1.

#6 Huntington Good Will vs #2 Kansas City Royals - The Good Will came from a 0-2 hole to get here. Will their power game propel them past the Royals? The series was even at 5-5. It will boil down to who scores the most runs and expect them to be high scoring, well that is how a team wins. KC is favored 3-2 in a shoot out.

#5 Chicago Cubs vs #1 Cincinnati Reds - Reds own the season series 8-2. Cubs won their two games at home at separate times. Cubs swept the Pepperjackets to get here, I did expect the 'jackets to win one. A classic match up between two very good teams, but it favors the Reds at 3-1.

#6 Milwaukee Brewers vs #2 Atlanta Pork-N-Beans - PnB's won the series 6-4. Brewers beat a feisty Houston bunch in an upset, was it experience?. I expect this one to go 5 games with Atlanta favored 3-2.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Time to Analyze Your Team

Yes, it is time to analyze your team to see where the weakness lies to improve next year. IMO I have a very good team, but they tend to melt down after the All-Star break and I don't have a complete answer.

I looked at the hitting stats, pretty dismal. At home, if it wasn't for Tapies, I had almost no offense. On the road was much better in the offensive measure, not much, but better. I examined the stadiums and most had the same likeness for the most part, pluses in the HR department as opposed to my neutral. I looked for a new stadium and found two available that could be considered and my hitting would love them. I don't think my pitching staff is up to the task at either one though, so that is out. Sounds funny doesn't it? They pitch better in plus parks also which I have never figured out but I won't move to one. Besides, I want to stay in Cleveland. The biggest surprise was Max Crede, he did a good job playing as a bench warmer instead of a starter, actually better.

At least the defense is pretty good and will get better. CF is a trouble spot that may get worked out next year. I made a little test the last 10 games and it seemed to work better and shouldn't have. SS should even be better along with 2B and 3B.

I traded some vets off the pitching staff, like Chang and Saez. I always liked Saez, he never looked real good but always got the job done and I picked him off the scrap heap. Chang was having a good season before moving to Brewer land, but didn't do such a great job there. Luke, Haliday and Bush were great departures in my books. Giving up my starting catcher in Bates was tough, but I had better ones and I tried to trade them instead. I rarely trade, but I think I got good return in the end. Though the trades of Chang, Saez and Bates may have helped the spiral, but I seriously doubt it now. Losing Magnusson for the second half of the season sure didn't help. Olivares looks better on paper than actual stats. Governale, I tried to trade early but no one wanted him, turned out to be a very good closer, he could have been the FOY but never got any chances after the break. Blackwell, I didn't want to bring to the ML level this year but had no choice after all the trades.

There will be some departures next season for sure. The well liked Hunter Tomlinson will be leaving. Bonk Stinnett, who I got in a trade and maybe I should have given a chance, will be gone. Wilson House will more than likely be gone also, his stats are better than his abilities, could never figure that one out but always failed when ya needed him most. Alex Garces will be gone for sure.

I got a heavy Arb class next year and I am hoping that I can sign most of them long term and be able to pickup a FA pitcher also. That could be tough. Since most of them didn't have an outstanding season, just maybe the price will be right, yeah, uh huh.

So I have made notes in the budget for next year as a guide so I don't have to research so hard. May not stick to it as I may need to adjust here and there but it is a start.

So what caused the melt down after All-Star break? Not 100% sure actually, but has been the same for quite a while and I think I have a handle on it. I got swept by the Mets at home in the first series after the break, that was tough to swallow and shouldn't have happened Sorry keebo, that's my take on it. Took 3 or 4 from Trenton in a 2 home-away series which made me think everything was okay. Then swept by the PnBs in Atlanta, that was my last chance at making a run. Those 11 games more or less broke the team. Then I got frustrated which didn't help, didn't hurt either. I put the rat team in because most of the starters were in fatigue status. Beyond popular belief, if my players drop below 100%, they don't play at the ML level, I learned that the hard way. Basically, rest them or lose them for the season. The schedule is actually my down fall! Other than 9 games left in my division at or near the end of the season, 50 games are with the rest of the league. Unfortunately, my schedule in those 50 games are mostly with playoff teams. Matter of fact, outside of my division, only Salem and Vancouver had worse records than myself. I currently have one of the most brutal schedules there is. The only way to fix it, is to get better. With my current team the only way to get better is with pitching. I have been working on it forever and it just seems to elude me.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Playoff Round 1

It is that time of the season already. What may happen is any ones guess, the rankings don't really come into play now. So I will ask the crystal ball and go with its inside divinity for a clue.

#5 Las Vegas Slobs vs #4 New York Yankees - It is rumored that New York may change their nickname next year to the "Frustrated Yank-a-Doodles". Why? Ten straight East Titles and can't get past the second round. Will it be further disappointment this year? The Slobs own the season series 7-3. Home field is a disadvantage for the Yankees. Expect the Slobs to win 3-2 or 3-1.

#4 Huntington Good Will vs #3 St. Louis Barracudas - The Good Will barely hung on to stave off the Blue Jays. The Barracudas made a run at the end as predicted to take the division. The Barracudas own the series 6-4. Look for a tight well played series. The Barracudas are slightly favored with a 3-2 win.

#5 Chicago Cubs vs #4 Scottsdale Pepperjackets - The Pepperjackets learned how to win at home. The Cubs overtook the Brewers at the end as predicted. The series was tied 5-5. The Cubs are favored to win 3-1 or 3-2.

#6 Milwaukee Brewers vs #3 Houston Astros - The Brewers had a great season but faded a little at the end. The Astros has put it together. Dilo asked me if the Brewers were an anomaly due to the power rankings. I said "No, the anomaly was the Sluggers." The season series went to the Astros 8-2 and they played 7 in a row. The crystal ball says it is an Astros sweep and I can't argue with that but may say it may be an Astros win at 3-1.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

AL GM of the Season Voting

Total # votes - 19
Vote breakdown:
  • Soxfan121 - 10
  • Cmchristians - 5
  • Knucklebones - 2
  • Edham55 - 2

IFA News

I would recommend reading the Help screen before signing an IFA to a MLB contract. Right now you can negotiate with one then click on Help to read the new instructions and try to make heads or tails of the changes. It looks like you can offer a MLB contract for 3 years at the 327K minimum like before, but to go past 3 years you must offer at least $5M per year. There are some ifs, ands and buts to this it seems, and no one knows for sure as of yet. If I read it correctly the bonus money may be limited to $10M for an IFA with a $5M+ per year deal. The way it reads looks a little confusing because the bonus money may come out of Player Payroll (like a normal FA) instead of Prospect for this type of contract. That would cut down on money transfers at least. How this actually works I am not sure. Hopefully we will be fully aware before next season as budgeting will be different for sure.


Bonus - Bonuses are guaranteed money that comes out of the player payroll upon signing. Bonuses cannot be transferred through trades or waiver moves. Bonuses are limited to $10 million.

Season - This is the actual season salary that you would like to offer the player. The values in the boxes for the seasons will default to his demands. For minor league contracts, this will be the Rookie league minimum of $7,650. For big league contracts, this will be the 40-Man minimum of $54,000. After a player signs a contract, you must assign him to a team from the Edit Rosters page in the GM's Office. If a prospect is signed to a minor league contract and then assigned to any team but the rookie league, his salary will be increased to the minimum for that level. If a player signs a big league contract for $54,000 and is assigned to the big leagues, his salary will increase to the big league minimum, because this contract type only places the player on the 40-Man roster, not the ML roster. There is a maximum allowable offer of $20 million for any season. The total value of the contract will appear at the bottom of the page. If a you offer a prospect any deal greater than 3 years the minimum annual salary for every year must be at least $5M.

Monday, January 26, 2009

GM of the Season Award - AL

cmchristians - St. Louis Barracudas
  • Projected 15 game improvement over last season.
  • Projected to win 1st AL North division title in team and franchise history.
  • Projected 2nd playoff appearance in team and franchise history.
edham55 - Monterrey Corn Dogs
  • Projected 7 game improvement over last season.
  • AL South division winner.
  • Projected to have the best record in the AL.
  • 4th playoff appearance in team history, 5th in franchise history.
  • Over .600 winning percentage.
knucklebones - Kansas City Royals
  • Projected 1 game improvement over last season.
  • Projected to win 1st AL West division title in team history, 2nd in franchise history.
  • 2nd playoff appearance in team history, 3rd in franchise history.
  • Over .600 winning percentage.
soxfan121 - Huntington Good Will
  • Projected 16 game improvement over last season.
  • Projected 1st playoff appearance in team history, 3rd in franchise history.
  • First time over .500 since season 2.

NL GM of the Season Voting

Total # votes - 16
Vote breakdown:
  • Dilo - 6
  • Erffdogg - 4
  • Yoker70 - 3
  • Kingjohndevi - 2
  • sjr456 - 1 (no I did not vote for myself, it was a write in)

Hall Voting

Total # votes - 78
Total # voters - 22
Total # votes needed for induction - 14.62

Breakdown of the votes:
  • Armas - 17
  • Nixon - 15
  • Gates - 13
  • McDowell - 11
  • Stevenson - 8
  • Johnson - 7
  • Jordan - 3
  • Schilling - 2
  • Dong - 1
  • Payton - 1

Saturday, January 24, 2009

GM of the Season Award - NL

yoker70 - Scottsdale Pepperjackets
  • Projected 6 game improvement over last season.
  • Projected to win the NL West for the 2nd time in franchise history. Season 2 was last time the franchise won the division.
  • Projected to win the make the playoffs for the 2nd time in franchise history. Season 2 was last time the franchise made the playoffs.
dilo - Milwaukee Brewers
  • Projected 12 game improvement over last season.
  • Projected to be the number 1 wild card seed in the NL.
  • Projected to win the make the playoffs for the 6th time in franchise history. Season 5 was the last time the franchise made the playoffs.
kingjohndevi - Houston Astros
  • Projected 8 game improvement over last season.
  • Projected to win the NL South for the first time in franchise history.
  • Projected to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.
erffdogg - Cincinnati Reds
  • Won the NL North
  • Projected 2 game improvement over last season.
  • Projected to have the leagues best record.

Hall Voting

  • Everyone gets 3 votes.
  • Those 3 votes must be distributed amongst 3 different players.
  • You have to use all 3 votes.
  • Player has to be on at least 75% of the voters ballot to get in.
  • You can vote for whoever you, whether they were on your team or not.
  • The projected stats should be used just to give you an idea of the players performance over their career. There could be mistakes in the calculations, or the player could have significantly over or under performed during the period calculated.
  • Trade chat me your votes.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Hall Nominees

They are in no particular order.

Dallas Payton - 1B - Kansas City Royals
Career Stats (actual):
8 seasons - .312 AVG, .412 OBP, 389 HR, 1227 RBI, 1560 Hits, 1060 Runs

Playoff Stats:
19 games - .236 AVG, .429 OBP, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 17 Hits, 13 Runs

Awards/Accomplishments:
1 - MVP
4 - All Star Appearances
3 - Silver Slugger
Home Run Derby Champ

Fernando Armas - 1B - Austin Deuce Droppers (Fightin Armadillos)
Career Stats (actual):
10 seasons - .374 AVG, .454 OBP, 317 HR, 1325 RBI, 1731 Hits, 1169 Runs, 255 SB

Career Stats (projected):
14 seasons - .374 AVG, .454 OBP, 443 HR, 1855 RBI, 2423 Hits, 1636 Runs, 357 SB

Playoff Stats:
104 games - .368 AVG, .440 OBP, 24 HR, 120 RBI, 156 Hits, 109 Runs, 28 SB

Awards/Accomplishments:
4 - MVP
4 - All Star Appearances
2 - Silver Slugger
4 - World Series Rings

Javier Santayana - LF - Toronto Blue Jays
Career Stats (actual):
10 seasons - .314 AVG, .431 OBP, 249 HR, 1021 RBI, 1856 Hits, 1229 Runs, 445 SB

Playoff Stats:
42 games - .283 AVG, .312 OBP, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 51 Hits, 27 Runs, 11 SB

Awards/Accomplishments:
3 - All Star Appearances
1 - Silver Slugger
1 - Gold Glove

Ramon Dong - LF - Kansas City Royals
Career Stats (actual):
10 seasons - .331 AVG, .421 OBP, 212 HR, 996 RBI, 1881 Hits, 1234 Runs, 124 SB

Playoff Stats:
47 games - .361 AVG, .438 OBP, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 69 Hits, 38 Runs, 6 SB

Awards/Accomplishments:
4 - All Star Appearances
2 - Silver Slugger
1 - Gold Glove
1 - World Series Ring

Dwight Johnson - Chicago Cubs
Career Stats (actual):
10 seasons - 3.67 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 150 Wins, 1510 SO

Career Stats (projected)
12 seasons - 3.67 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 180 Wins, 1812 SO

Awards/Accomplishments:
1 - CY Young
4 - All Star Appearances
Season 1 Rookie of the Year
3 - World Series Rings

Frank Gates - C - Huntington Good Will
Career Stats (actual):
10 seasons - .385 AVG, .506 OBP, 192 HR, 1097 RBI, 2095 Hits, 1220 Runs

Playoff Stats:
14 games - .418 AVG, .485 OBP, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 23 Hits, 10 Runs

Awards/Accomplishments:
2 - MVP
9 - All Star Appearances
8 - Silver Slugger
Season 1 Rookie of the Year

Orber Palacios - 3B - Jacksonville Beach Boys
Career Stats (actual):
10 seasons - .305 AVG, .372 OBP, 402 HR, 1273 RBI, 1679 Hits, 1047 Runs

Career Stats (projected):
11 seasons - .305 AVG, .372 OBP, 442 HR, 1400 RBI, 1846 Hits, 1151 Runs

Awards/Accomplishments:
3 - All Star Appearances
2 - Silver Slugger
1 - Gold Glove

Oscar Ford - P - Monterrey Corn Dogs
Career Stats (actual):
9 seasons - 5.04 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 187 Saves, 263 SO

Career Stats (projected):
14 seasons - 5.04 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 290 Saves, 409 SO

Playoff Stats:
NA

Awards/Accomplishments:
1 - All Star Team

Omar Nixon - 1B - Cincinnati Reds
Career Stats (actual):
9 seasons - .334 AVG, .415 OBP, 502 HR, 1259 RBI, 1576 Hits, 1099 Runs,

Playoff Stats:
66 games - 307 AVG, .386 OBP, 31 HR, 73 RBI, 79 Hits, 58 Runs

Awards/Accomplishments:
3 - MVP
6 - All Star Appearances
3 - Silver Slugger
1 - Gold Glove
1 - World Series Ring
Home Run Derby Champ

Abraham Jordan - 1B - Salem Mayhem
Career Stats (actual):
10 seasons - .320 AVG, .436 OBP, 408 HR, 1258 RBI, 1693 Hits, 1173 Runs

Career Stats (projected):
13 seasons - .320 AVG, .436 OBP, 530 HR, 1635 RBI, 2200 Hits, 1524 Runs

Playoff Stats:
22 games - .260 AVG, .387 OBP, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 20 Hits, 9 Runs

Awards/Accomplishments:
1 - MVP
4 - All Star Appearances
4 - Silver Slugger
Home Run Derby Champ

Roosevelt Stevenson - 1B - New York Yankees
Career Stats (actual):
10 seasons - .301 AVG, .380 OBP, 502 HR, 1381 RBI, 1817 Hits, 1236 Runs

Career Stats (projected):
11 seasons - .301 AVG, .380 OBP, 552 HR, 1519 RBI, 1998 Hits, 1359 Runs

Playoff Stats:
38 games - .300 AVG, .337 OBP, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 48 Hits, 19 Runs

Awards/Accomplishments:
3 - All Star Appearances
2 - Silver Slugger
1 - All Star Game MVP

Bryan McDowell - P - Toronto Blue Jays
Career Stats (actual):
10 seasons - 2.88 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 347 Saves, 472 SO

Career Stats (projected):
12 seasons - 2.88 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 416 Saves, 566 SO

Awards/Accomplishments:
7 - All Star Appearances
6 - Fireman of the Year
1 - World Series Ring

Quinton Schilling - 1B - Unassigned
Career Stats (actual):
9 seasons - .263 AVG, .342 OBP, 431 HR, 1098 RBI, 1298 Hits, 859 Runs

Career Stats (projected):
12 seasons - .263 AVG, .342 OBP, 574 HR, 1464 RBI, 1730 Hits, 1145 Runs

Playoff Stats:
NA

Awards/Accomplishments:
1 - All Star Appearance

Chan Yang - 1B - Monterrey Corn Dogs
Career Stats (actual):
.293 AVG, .364 OBP, 420 HR, 1238 RBI, 1625 Hits, 1079 Runs

Career Stats (projected):
.293 AVG, .364 OBP, 462 HR, 1361 RBI, 1787 Hits, 1186 Runs

Playoff Stats:
49 games - .217 AVG, .279 OBP, 14 HR, 32 RBI, 6 Hits, 4 Runs

Awards/Accomplishments:
3 - All Star Appearances
2 - Silver Slugger

Nerio Ford - C - Vancouver Canadians
Career Stats (actual):
9 seasons - .321 AVG, .411 OBP, 265 HR, 929 RBI, 1401 Hits, 838 Runs

Playoff Stats:
38 games - .299 AVG, .405 OBP, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 38 Hits, 23 Runs


Awards/Accomplishments:
2 - All Star Appearances
1 - Silver Slugger
1 - World Series Ring

Hall of Fame


At the request of Northerngaul a hall of fame is being created on the blog. Just a few simple rules:
  • Every owner can nominate one player this season. The player does not necessarily have to be on your roster, but should be someone that played for your team.
  • The player must be at least 30 years of age.
  • The player can still be playing.
  • Everyone gets a set number of votes depending on the number of nominees.
  • You cant vote for your own player.
  • Any player named on 75% or more of all ballots cast is elected.
  • Trade chat me your nominee.
  • I will estimate career stats for players that have more ML seasons than stats. This will be based on the normal progression of a player. Obviously this is only valid for players that have only a few missing seasons.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Playoff Picture 24 Games Left

It is getting close!!

NL:

1. Cincinnati Reds - Has the #1 seed almost wrapped up.
2. Atlanta Pork-N-Beans - Currently holds the #2 seed but could drop to #3.
3. Houston Astros - Currently holds the #3 seed but could move up to the #2 seed.
4. Scottsdale Pepperjackets - Currently holds the #4 seed and well in control of it.
5. Milwaukee Brewers - Currently holds the #5 seed but could end up at #6.
6. Chicago Cubs - Currently holds the #6 seed but could end up at #5.

Outsiders Sniffing: Louisville Swingers - Only team that has a realistic chance but is a very very slim one, as it would take a 17-7 record at the least and that wouldn't even guarantee a playoff spot.

AL:

1. Monterrey Corn Dogs - Has the #1 seed wrapped up.
2. Kansas City Royals - Currently has the #2 seed but could fall to #5.
3. New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Barracudas all have a shot at the #3 and #4 seed.
4. see 3
5. Las Vegas Slobs - Currently holds #5 but are making a run at #2.
6. Huntington Good Will - Currently holds the the #6 seed.

The AL is a bit confusing and could change at a moments notice on any given day as there are some pretenders that still have a shot also. Speaking of which, didn't I say the Spouses would fade and St Louis take over?

Expand Roster?

It is that point in the season that the roster can expand. But the question in most owners mind is who and why.

First of all you can only bring players up from the minors that are on the 40-man roster. Is it worth putting a player on the 40-man roster this year or wait till next year? It may not be worth putting a player on the 40-man roster and start his option clock just yet.

Second, you need to make sure your minor league roster can support having him leave the roster while they are still playing or until after their season is over. If you skeletonize your minor league team, what happens if you have a sudden injury?

When to demote a player back to the minors is a difference of opinion. If the player was called up at roster expansion and demoted at the end of the season should not incur a demotion penalty of any kind. I have even waited till the beginning of the following season to move them back without penalty. It has to do with ML service time however in conjunction with the option, so one has to be careful in that respect. It must be less than a year so I am told. You can get that info from the player card by running the mouse over the ML years. So, if a player was called up in the season due to injury then called up at roster expansion, he could incur a penalty if he isn't sent back down at the end of the season, but check the service time because he may have been called up previously.

Some hard rules I try to use in whether to bring a player up.

The first thing I look at is whether the player is going to stick with the ML roster next season especially if he is under the age of 24. Just to bring a player up for a few games for ML experience won't help that much.

The second thing I look at is how rested the player is. If he already has 500 AB's or more or a lot of innings pitched, how successful will he be? It would be better to wait until ST.

The third thing is look at his stats carefully. How close is he to maxing his projections? I use OVR for that, if he is within 4 or less then he is a candidate regardless of age.

The fourth thing to look at is need. Do I need them to rest the starters for a few games, especially those in the playoffs. Those not in a playoff race, like me, should be hesitant to bring a player up unless he will be on the ML roster next season.

Another thing to look at is old useful vets some have in the minors. The ones in their last year of their contract. I bring them up to change their status even if I don't want them. What do I mean by that? If they are in the minors at the end of the season, they are even more useless next season. If I bring them up, then they will either be FA or arb-eligible. If they become arb-eligible, you are going to dump them anyway so no big deal. But what if they go FA? You could get lucky enough to actually snag a type B draft pick instead of letting him go for free. I am not sure if a 6 year minor league FA changes his stock in this regard without 1 year of ML experience at least but could become arb-eligible so be careful there. For those that don't know, a 6 year minor league FA is a player that has been on a team for 6 years and never put on the 40-man roster and will become an unrestricted FA at the end of the season if he isn't.

Some examples from my team:

I don't have any position players I want to bring up. I have five that could be but to what end?

Tony Brown and Don Webster could be brought up and both could be very good 1B. I think they are both under-rated a bit which doesn't help. I have them in an experiment because their ratings are so close together. My thinking is that Webster will be the better hitter in the end, after next season I will know for sure. Both are within my ranges to bring up except age, but to what end? They won't be on the ML roster next year because I got Albert and Rodrigo and a host at their bench positions.

Julian Giles was on the ML roster last year, he took a demotion penalty when I sent him down in the spring. He was disappointing at the ML level and I was hoping he would improve at AAA, that didn't happen either. Maybe ST next year will wake him up.

Posiedon Marte, I have been considering and my pen could use the help. I can't though because I have too many injuries suddenly at AAA. I have him as a SP, I know he isn't one, but with a 5 or 6 man rotation, you can double his pitches and get away with it for a little while. But I was going to call him up because I was thinking he would be a fine addition to the pen next year. But then I noticed his distance between current and projections and decided it would be better to stay at AAA for another year unless he has an outstanding spring.

Lucas Thomson had a good AAA campaign this season and is the optimal candidate for a call up. It will just have to wait until the AAA season is over. I am not exactly sold on the fact he could be a ML pitcher in the first place even in the pen. I just don't like left-handed pitchers very much unless their vsR is in the upper 60's but will give him a shot next season I think. He might be the only I bring up just to see how he does.

Butch King, I did bring him up. I have been trying to get him into ML shape since I acquired him. I picked him up off the waiver wire a few seasons ago I think and got a huge DITR hit on him. He is under-rated to his defense. But getting him innings was tough because his control was so outlandishly low and his makeup doesn't help to make the projections. The object here is to get his control up a couple points between now and the end of spring training next year along with another point here or there. He could become a very good Setup B pitcher if it happens.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Inside the Numbers

I was wondering if someone didn't know where the numbers I used came from. I didn't just pull it out of thin air by the way. Matter of fact I examined 12 or more worlds before using it because I thought it was a joke at first. But then I saw the correlation to the report and a teams record in their standings and it held true throughout 95% of the time. Matter of fact I even checked for three days on a team vs team match up in two worlds using the report and can predict who is going to win a game 70% of the time. Is that a little preordained or what? Take my last game against the Reds, I won 1-0. However I expected to lose that game by a run or two. Why? My overall offense was 3 points lower and pitching was about even but I have a clear advantage in defense. I won because Owen went down with an injury that left my pitching staff in control. The report I am referring to is the Franchise Rankings report. It can tell you many things, I just never paid much attention to it before. It is more of a bell-weather than stats even.

Ok, the numbers are the ranking from the snapshot to correlate a teams ranking and their standings in the division. If there are more than one listed as a 1, 2 , and so on, that means they are tied in the overall rankings and I am not one to say that one is better than the other, but the teams are ranked in WIS order. Since I don't have a snapshot of the teams on opening day, I can only say that some teams overalls have changed due to trades, injuries and such.

Example: Since I am facing the Reds I will use me as an example. My overall rating is a 67. It is actually better than that but I got an injury or two. My starting line up is a 70 and is actually weak against right-handed pitchers and I think my downfall. Though there is a little contrast because I have a battery of left-handed hitters which makes things a bit awkward in determining match ups. Starting rotation is a 73 and I have a 79 rated pitcher starting. For the next game I have a 59 rated pen, most are in fatigue status with all the extra inning and 1-run games they hit and haven't recovered well. The Reds starting line up is a 76. I am facing Yamil, 87 rated and a 68 rated pen. Giving up 6 points in offense, 8 in starting pitching and 9 in the pen. Look for a score of about 10-3 in favor of the Reds at least. It should be 3-0 or 4-1 thru 5 innings. The pen will get blasted when Olivares pitches late, say the 7th or so. Don't ask, Olivares looks better on paper than his actual pitching.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Real Look at Power Rankings

Is it a crap shoot at who wins or is it preordained? To me it looks like it is preordained in a manner of speaking, but actions during the season can change things. Someone said it best that you are guaranteed a 50-50 season and the other 62 games depends on how you play it. In essence they are correct in that belief for the most part, but I think it is more like 54-50.

Some things that can alter a teams ranking and how they play during the season is the ballparks, trades, manager actions/non-actions and maybe the most important is injuries. Another thing that could change things is late season call ups.

This is the current snapshot of the AL teams.
1. Kansas City Royals
2. Monterrey Corn Dogs
2. Arizona Splashlogs
3. Tampa Bay Rays
3. New York Yankees
4. Dover Dung Beetles
4. San Diego Dirt Bags
4. Las Vegas Slobs
5. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Detroit Detroit
5. Philadelphia Athletics
5. St. Louis Barracudas
6. Huntington Good Will
6. Austin Fightin' Armadillos
7. Salt Lake City Multiple Spouses
8. Washington D.C. Senators


AL North:
1. Toronto Blue Jays - 5
2. Salt Lake City Multiple Spouses - 7
3. St. Louis Barracudas - 5
4. Detroit Detroit - 5

With a weak division it is anybodies for the taking, with the chances of a wild card spot probably out of the question. The Barracudas could make a strong run in this theory with the Spouses fading at the end. Detroit made several good acquisitions during the season and could be a surprise next season.

AL East:
1. New York Yankees - 3
2. Dover Dung Beetles - 4
3. Philadelphia Athletics - 5
4. Washington D.C. Senators - 8

New York only has a 6 game lead but if something happens, Dover is right there to pick up the slack. It is hard to win in NY and Philly as a home team, it takes the right 12 to 15 players and they never seem to arrive at the same time. Washington on the other hand needs to be treated as a neutral park when it comes to players.

AL South:
1. Monterrey Corn Dogs - 2
2. Huntington Good Will - 6
3. Austin Fightin' Armadillos - 6
4. Tampa Bay Rays - 3

The Dogs are comfortably in first. Huntington has a good record at the moment, but, could the schedule do them in. Austin should be fighting for third with Huntington but have problems with winning at home. Tampa Bay has a good team with a bad history and a rookie owner learning the ropes, success will come from experience.

AL West:
1. Kansas City Royals - 1
2. Las Vegas Slobs - 4
3. Arizona Splashlogs - 2
4. San Diego Dirt Bags - 4

KC has a 5 game lead and have the best power ranking. Arizona would have changed things if the owner hadn't gone missing and probably had some trickle down effect on the entire league. Will the Slobs make a run? Getting the right players for Petco is not an easy task, then when you do they don't do so hot on the road.

This is the current snapshot of the NL teams.
1. Cincinnati Reds
1. Atlanta Pork-N-Beans
1. Louisville Swingers
2. Houston Astros
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Jacksonville Beach Boys
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Oklahoma City Kevin Durants
5. Cleveland Indians
6. Vancouver Canadians
6. Salem Mayhem
6. Scottsdale Pepperjackets
6. Trenton Ball Hogs
7. Santa Fe Heat
7. New York Mets

NL North:
1. Cincinnati Reds - 1
2. Milwaukee Brewers - 4
3. Chicago Cubs - 2
4. Pittsburgh Pirates - 3

The Reds are in first of course. The Brewers are hot at the moment but for how long? Can the Cubbies regain their momentum? The Pirates have figured out how to win at home, but the road games are more complex and a tough division doesn't help.

NL East:
1. Atlanta Pork-N-Beans - 1
2. Trenton Ball Hogs - 6
3. Cleveland Indians - 5
4. New York Mets - 7

The P&B's have walked away with the division again. Why? The Indians didn't win games they should have and I don't know why, could it have been vets for youth trades? Will the Indians retake second or will Trenton claim the spot? The Mets have some good young players and the minors are getting deep they will get better and better.

NL South:
1. Houston Astros - 2
2. Louisville Swingers - 1
3. Jacksonville Beach Boys - 4
4. Santa Fe Heat - 7

The Astros are setting comfortable but are still worried with just cause. The Swingers are within striking distance of a playoff spot but the question is, will it happen? With 33 games to go, you can look at it this way: Houston wins 11 to 15 games (way less than 50%) they are in, why, because the Swingers would need to win 20+ games to get there. It could happen, don't get me wrong. In my theory though, the Cubs and Swingers overtake the Brewers, but with Brewers needing just 10+ wins also I don't see that happening. So it boils down to the Cubs and Swingers as to who gets the last WC spot. Jacksonville is actually having a good season playing behind a 1 and 2. The Heat needs pitching as the position players are there and the minors are strong in that aspect.

NL West:
1. Scottsdale Pepperjackets - 6
2. Vancouver Canadians - 6
3. Salem Mayhem - 6
4. Oklahoma City Kevin Durants - 5

The Pepperjackets have surged into the lead, but will it hold up? Can Vancouver or Salem catch up? Watch out for the Durants next season as they are building up for a storm.

A whacky look at power rankings

NL:

Pitching:

Control:

1. Houston Astros
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Atlanta Pork-N-Beans
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Vancouver Canadians
6. Trenton Ball Hogs
7. Pittsburgh Pirates

Splits:

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Houston Astros
3. Louisville Swingers
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Atlanta Pork-N-Beans
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitches:
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Houston Astros
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Atlanta Pork-N-Beans
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. New York Mets

Hitting:

Contact:

1. Santa Fe Heat
2. Louisville Swingers
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Vancouver Canadians
5. Jacksonville Beach Boys
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Power:
1. Atlanta Pork-N-Beans
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Houston Astros
6. Salem Mayhem

Splits:
1. Jacksonville Beach Boys
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Louisville Swingers
4. Vancouver Canadians
5. Scottsdale Pepperjackets
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Eye:
1. Atlanta Pork-N-Beans
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Louisville Swingers
5. Vancouver Canadians
6. Jacksonville Beach Boys

Defense:

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Scottsdale Pepperjackets
3. Louisville Swingers
4. Trenton Ball Hogs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

Overall:

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Houston Astros
3. Atlanta Pork-N-Beans
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Louisville Swingers
7. Jacksonville Beach Boys
8. Vancouver Canadians
9. Scottsdale Pepperjackets

AL:

Pitching:

Control:

1. New York Yankees
2. Monterrey Corn Dogs
3. Washington D.C. Senators
4. Dover Dung Beetles
5. Las Vegas Slobs
6. Austin Fightin' Armadillos
7. Salt Lake City Multiple Spouses

Splits:

1. Las Vegas Slobs
2. Monterrey Corn Dogs
3. St. Louis Barracudas
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Toronto Blue Jays
6. Kansas City Royals

Pitches:
1. Monterrey Corn Dogs
2. Huntington Good Will
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Austin Fightin' Armadillos
6. Philadelphia Athletics

Hitting:

Contact:

1. Arizona Splashlogs
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Monterrey Corn Dogs
4. Washington D.C. Senators
5. San Diego Dirt Bags
6. Kansas City Royals

Power:
1. Las Vegas Slobs
2. Philadelphia Athletics
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Monterrey Corn Dogs
5. New York Yankees
6. Toronto Blue Jays

Splits:
1. Kansas City Royals
2. Dover Dung Beetles
3. Arizona Splashlogs
4. San Diego Dirt Bags
5. New York Yankees
6. St. Louis Barracudas

Eye:
1. Monterrey Corn Dogs
2. Washington D.C. Senators
3. Huntington Good Will
4. New York Yankees
5. Dover Dung Beetles
6. Kansas City Royals

Defense:

1. Huntington Good Will
2. Philadelphia Athletics
3. New York Yankees
4. Arizona Splashlogs
5. San Diego Dirt Bags
6. Dover Dung Beetles

Overall:

1. Monterrey Corn Dogs
2. Las Vegas Slobs
3. Huntington Good Will
4. New York Yankees
5. St. Louis Barracudas
6. Dover Dung Beetles
7. Arizona Splashlogs
8. Salt Lake City Multiple Spouses
9. Toronto Blue Jays

Jacksonville First Rounder Signs

The long awaited signing of Jacksonville's 24th pick in the draft finally signed on the dotted line while no one was paying attention.

Edwin Cooper, 1B: Not a power guy you would normally see at 1B, he will hit for a high average with about 15+ long balls per season. A very very solid pick.

Defense: A
Physical: A-
Hitting: A

With 6 picks in the 1st round, Jacksonville did a good job even with the somewhat skeptical pitching acquisitions. It is unknown why the 42 pick is still unsigned.

Monday, January 5, 2009

IFA News

1. Carlos Espinoza, P, San Diego Dirt Bags : A near ready ML starter, although he is listed as the #1 ML starter. A season at AAA at least would have been beneficial I would think. But then, when the need is great, there isn't much choice. He has decent control, good splits and three good to decent pitches. Maturity will go a long way for this young gun. For 16M, I think was money well spent.

2. Eswalin James, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers : A defensive gem at 2B or 3B and could play a weak SS and CF to boot. If the coaching staff could break his habit of closing his eyes when he swings, could make him an exceptional hitter, but I don't see it happening. For 12M+ was a good buy.

3. Fernando Cerda, 2B, Vancouver Canadians : Another 2B defensive gem and could play a weak CF. Not a power hitter but should hit for high average with 10 to 15 dingers thrown in. Pretty good signing for 11M+.

4. Al Limon, P, New York Mets : Very good control and good pitches for a long reliever. A great pickup for 8M+.

5. Domingo Jose, 2B, Huntington Good Will : My scouts say he isn't a 2B or even close to one, but would find duty in LF. Fielding wasn't the reason for being signed, hitting was and power hitting is his specialty. A good pickup for 7.5M.

Other Big impact signings:
Ivan Durazo, C, Trenton Ball Hogs : Not that great a catcher but he can hit a ton.

Gorkys Diaz, RF, Oklahoma City Kevin Durants : Somewhat weak glove but very good with a bat.

Horacio Hernandez, P, Washington D.C. Senators : Setup or closer should be a great addition even with a weak vsL.

Hector Benitez, P, Dover Dung Beetles : May be a very good starter, time will tell, but for the price makes for a great signing.

Tito Peterson, C, Washington D.C. Senators : Maybe not the greatest catcher but I like his hitting style and for the money, a good pick.

Vic Santiago, C, Cleveland Indians : A prototypical defensive PC catcher. Maybe not the greatest hitter, but he will wait on his pitch and put the ball in play. And a very cheap pickup.

Victor Ramirez, C, Vancouver Canadians: Not nearly as good as Vic in the catching department but will hit much better.

Harry Espinoza, CF, San Diego Dirt Bags : CF is a stretch but 2B is not and could turn into a good defensive bench player at the ML level.

Matty Ortega, P, St. Louis Barracudas : For the price he was a steal. I am not kind with left handed pitchers whose vsR is below 65, but his low price makes him the steal of the IFA market at the moment.

Unsigned to Signed

1. Ivan Johnson, P, Santa Fe Heat : To be selected Number 1 is an honor. This kid has the tools and is very versatile. How to use him depends on whose point of view you look at. A two pitch starter? A long reliever? A two inning closer?

Defense: D
Physical: A+
Pitching: A+

Looks just as good after being signed.

2. Torey Caminiti, SP, Philadelphia Athletics : Possesses some great pitching skills and will be a fine addition to the pitching staff in the future.

Defense: B
Physical: B
Pitching: A+

After being signed, the stock went up on this kid and looks to be a projected solid #2 starter.

3. Brendan Hartman, SS, Arizona Splashlogs : A SS he is not as he looks like a solid 3B. Health could be a big problem. His hitting ability looks pretty good.

Defense: A+ at 3B
Physical: C
Hitting: B+

The disappearance of the owner hurt but still delivered with some very nice picks especially late.


9. George Obermueller, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: I wasn't exactly smitten with this guy on my draft board. Does have some great qualities and can play 1B in his spare time. Could be a good workhorse starter but I would think he would be much better at real long relief duty.

Defense: A
Physical: B
Pitching: B

After being signed, I am still not sure he could be that great of a starter but the qualifications are there even with the somewhat weak pitches. This is one of those wait and see players

10. Curtis Farrell, 2B, Trenton Ball Hogs: A defensive 2B/CF with power hitting, makes him worthy of a first round pick. Probably the best position player in the draft.

Defense: A+
Physical: A+
Hitting: A

Making the projections could be rough and the kid can't be rushed. Even if he gets close he will still be very good.

11. Maverick Duran, P, Dover Dung Beetles: Has exceptional control and a workhorse. His splits are not horrible but for a power lefty not so good and the pitch quality doesn't exactly help. Although having very above average stats could very well could have a high tater total.

Defense: A
Physical: B+
Pitching: B+

This is another one of those wait and see players.

13. Vicente Estrada, San Diego Dirt Bags: Totally unknown, talk about my scouting not doing their job. It says he was drafted as a RF, I can't even confirm that. After getting a good look at this kid, I can see why my scouts ignored him. BTW, I fired all my scouts! He has T-Rex arms and causes problems catching the ball and is also the cause for his low health. Would make an outstandingly exceptional 1B. His first two home runs against the Corndogs with his powerful compacted swing hit a low flying banner plane.

Defense: C
Physical: C
Hitting: A++

If he stays healthy, a big if, could very well help a ML club in the hitting department.

Still Unsigned:

5. Phil Houston - Vancouver Canadians : Possibility is very late singing if at all.

24. Edwin Cooper - Jacksonville Beach Boys : Unknown

29. Chris House - Louisville Swingers : Possibility is very late singing if at all.

30. Cecil Curtis - Monterrey Corn Dogs : Unknown