Friday, May 31, 2013

A Minor Happening

Something minor for the Mets as Ronny Gant hit his 41st home run of the season. Doesn't sound like much of an accomplishment but it is the most home runs hit by a Met since season 13. Randy Lamb was the last Met player to hit 40+ home runs in a season. If Randy Lamb was in his prime playing today, he may not even be on a ML roster. I can say that with confidence as I have three players at AAA that is better than him that can't stick at the ML level.  That is how bad the live ball era was.

Here is an oddity I found while looking that up. John McInerney has moved to third on the all-time Met home run list and only needs 14 more to move into second place. Of course it helps when the number is so low at 220 but then John is not a home run hitter either. It is also a far cry from the 624 Randy Lamb hit.

I have done some considerable thinking about Claude Chatwood and his fielding delimma. As we know everyone has errors in this game, the type of errors sometimes don't correspond to the players attributes. This is one of those and there are a few others that are beyond my thinking, Tyreace French comes to mind quickly, I can't see him having 5 errors at 1B myself, 3 maybe. Anyway back to the clod, if you think of it this way: the aggregate score of a CF is 295, Claude chimes in at 283 because of his arm. So the answer there is he will commit errors, the problem is the actual errors he is capable of are throwing errors. With that in mind, about the only throwing errors he could incur is missing the cut off man. Unfortunately that is not considered an error unless he throws it into the stands which I have mistakenly seen happen by a CF. So what happens is he gets dinged with the inappropriate fielding error as justification for creating an error.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Just for Dilo

After looking over Brian Patrick,  I was rather intrigued.

First thing I looked at was why he had so many passed balls. What I noticed when checking on that phenomenon was Robinzon Rodriguez was in the game at some point on 3 of them. They say pitch names are window dressing but I wonder sometimes as he tries to catch Sinkers, Knuckle balls and Fork balls. If you have never been a catcher those are a very dirty treat.

Potvin and Uribe are not bad targets to throw to on base stealing attempts either. Although Potvin is short at 5-9. Three of those errors were over throws on base stealing attempts. One was a fumbled bunt, so they called it a slow roller. The other was a pick off attempt to 1B.

I don't think  the difference between strength and accuracy is an issue. What I do think though is his age may be the trouble more than anything. Just acts like he needs to settle down.

The Pepper Juxtoposition

A couple days before the transaction deadline I was filtering through the stats trying to determine what I needed to do. A malingering team means something is up.  Nothing really stood out until I looked at the extended defensive stats for the team. I just plainly scratched my head or was it my ass..hmmm maybe both, it wasn't making any sense at all. We were ranked #1 in the NL in SBA and 3rd or 4th in CS and below the Mendoza line in CS%. I looked over Pepper Murton and his ratings and go okay, he ain't a gifted catcher but isn't all that bad. His hitting isn't terrible that is why I got him anyway. Then I looked at Rich Kennedy who is a little better in the defensive arena. Things just didn't make all that much sense that it was the problem, on to something else. 3B seems to be a problem, happens when you have a weak fielder but I still didn't find that out of the ordinary. I happen to like Miguel Otanez and his left handed bat (thanx Texas).

I really didn't pay it no mind at all until I played the Astros the next day (we will give thanx for that too). A 2-hit shutout...grumble grumble grumble. Might be the reason Edgardo Maduro has a strained rotator cuff now. What did catch my eye though was they ran wild on us. Okay, back to those extended defensive stats again and really look it over.

Nothing really hounding that I could see, Plus/Minus is good, 11 pick offs is 2nd in the NL, 5 passed balls is no big deal. Scratch, scratch, scratch some more.  On to the Totals, this can be tough if you don't know what you are looking for. Errors are just below the Mendoza line, I know our defense is not the greatest but not all that bad. Put outs are consistent at 2nd in the NL. Assists aren't wayward by any means. Hmm, now here is a surprising entity, almost dead last in the NL in turning the double play.  BINGO!

Now what the hell is causing it? Is it because of pitching? Seems unlikely as they have a .246 OAV, though DP's might be hard to come by because of that. On to the individual defensive stats. Okay, SS and 3B has caused half of the errors, no surprise there as that is the norm, a little higher at 3B than I like to see maybe. ROFL, I must have the pitcher leading the league in minus plays. Okay, still empty handed as to the cause. On to individual extended stats.

Truly nothing glaring other than Pepper has all 5 passed balls and has trouble throwing anyone out that steals. Oh gee! Am I dense or what, can't get the DP because they are stealing 2B on me all the time.

Bye bye Pepper, don't let the club house door hit you in the ass on your way to AAA. AAA isn't too terribly pissed as we called up Felipe Izquierdo to help stop the madness. I also waited til revoke waiver time to clear Joey Cather as I have a better 3B at AAA, but I am real hesitant about making the move this season. Just need to cover all bases however.

The change stopped the Astros dead in their tracks. DP's are on the rise, no more passed balls as of yet. Another thing I have noticed is that I am getting an extra inning out of my starters.

BTW, I will take Quilvio Gabriel off your hands!!!

International Signings and Other Stuff

Things have been rather quite, so finding something to write about hasn't been easy.

Eduardo Martin signed a bonus of $9.9M to play for the Phillies. Looks to be a 1B in the know. Could be a light powered OBP machine at the plate. Hard to find a 1B that could be your future lead off hitter. I like the possibilities.

Diego Medrano hit the market with Texas as he signed for a $7.8M bonus check. For a Setup B type he seems a little pricey for the quality I am seeing. For that kind of moolah one would expect Closer material. Then again my scouting could be wrong and going with gut instinct and his age.

Alex Rojas wrung $5.5M out of Seattle. Not sure where he might end of playing but I doubt it will be 3B, inclination is RF. Good eye, plausible splits, short on contact but could have whopping big power. Make up seems greatly bland to amount to much however.

Gorkys Sanchez is buying a new house instead of redecorating with the $5.4M check he got from Texas. Think he could be a cheap addition to the pitching staff if things work out.

Joseph Fujiwara signed with the Twins for the near rock bottom price of $2.7M.  I wasn't impressed all that much with his ability as a 1B but could suffice maybe. Has very good contact and splits at the plate with some power as his eye could be an iffy product. My estimation is that he may wind up as a DH in the end and with the lack of power was a major turn off to most in the AL.

The Mets have been rather coy about signing International prospects but have spent most of their prospect budget on them this year and it was a very slim budget to start with. While other teams eyes have been diverted, the Mets have swooped in and caught a couple surprising prospects. Well, they really don't amount to much or do they? I tend to pay for Internationals as to where they might fall in the draft with a thin budget.

Our latest acquisition was Julian Maduro for $1.6M. I know he probably doesn't look like much but my scouts tell me he might be an end of rotation starter one day. So my thinking was this, I gave up my 1st round pick (23rd) for a FA. I actually saved 300K for the replacement. I went back and looked at my draft board that I never ranked and looked things over. Chances were pretty good I would have selected Lou Brown who was selected 30th. The only other player in my top 10 that was available was DJ Kennedy and I didn't think highly of his scouting report and was drafted 31st. I am hoping I got value in the end for the pick I gave up.

Tony Mendoza was also picked up for near nothing, $730K. Not sure he will pan out to be defensive SS or not but my Low A needed a boost after the injury bug hit them hard. I equate him to a possible supplemental pick in the draft to a late 2nd round pick.

Fernando Castro might be another surprising theft according to my scouts anyway. He might be equated to a late supplemental or an early 2nd round pick.

Juan Olivo may not have been anything to celebrate about on signing him. The only reason was to bolster the rookie team with a little power which he has provided and his defense has turned out well also. For $390K, wasn't really a value pick as he was probably a 8th round pick at best.

Getting a catcher for the Rookie League can be a tiring expedition so I that is one of the first things I look for in the International market. This season that responsibility found its way onto Frank Martin shoulders. Not bad for $50K and the fact he may have went in the 12th round at the earliest.

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

A Look At GG CF's

This is another of those somewhat opinionated write ups of what makes a Gold Glove Center Fielder and what has transpired so far this season. To begin with a good CF will have the following defensive skills, 85/85/60/65 as suggested, to make the comparison.

NL frontrunners are:

Robinson Montgomery, Houston: Has great Range, Glove and Arm are both under the suggested marks however. Has amassed 12 plus plays and only 3 errors in 75 starts. Too bad he can't play 2B.

Carlton Saunders, Florida: Good Range, Glove is under and Arm is under. Has amassed 8 plus plays, 1 minus play and 4 errors in 115 starts. Could play 2B also.

Felipe Peralta, New York: Range is good, Glove is well under, arm way over. Has amassed 8 plus plays and 4 errors in 78 starts. Can play 2B  but is actually better at 3B.

Pat Belle, St. Louis: Range is just a little under, glove is way over while the arm is a little under. Has amassed 1 error and 8 plus plays in 102 starts.

Claude Chatwood, Chicago: Range and Glove are over while Arm is under. Has amassed 4 plus plays and 6 errors in 103 starts. Could play 2B also and maybe better.

Carl Browning, New York: Range is great, Glove is under and Arm is Great. Has amassed 5 plus plays and 1 error in 33 starts. Can play anywhere and does.

NL analysis: While Range appears to make the plus plays, it seems the Arm lessens errors committed better than Glove. Does this also hold true in the AL?

AL frontrunners:

Shayne Marte, Baltimore: Range is almost maxed, Glove is under while Arm is over/under. Has amassed 20 plus plays and 3 errors in 101 starts.

Tomas Ramirez, Texas: His Range equals Shayne while Glove is under and arm is over/under also. Has amassed 20 plus plays and 6 errors in 115 starts.

 Clark Parrish, Kansas City: Range is great, Glove is under while the Arm is under/over.  Has amassed 12 plus plays and 5 errors in 113 starts. Last years GG winner at 2B.

Arthur Donatello, Boston: Range is great, Glove is under while Arm is over. Has amassed 9 plus plays and 4 errors in 115 starts.

Clayton Tice, Detroit: Range is great, Glove and Arm is under. Has amassed  9 plus plays and  6 errors in 82 starts. Can play a good 2B also.

AL analysis: Range is definitely the factor for Plus Plays while Glove and Arm is the leading factors for errors.

Looking at the overall picture, going with uber range coupled with a decent glove which isn't too far under and a good arm is the way to go.

So basically I was wondering if Claude Chatwood was getting cheated somewhat in his fielding abilities. Out of all the Center Fielders looked at, he has the worst arm of the bunch but the best Glove. He is tops in the NL for PO's  so he gets lots of chances. My thinking is a couple more plus plays maybe but it is evident the over Glove does not hide the small hand and weak arm.

Monday, May 27, 2013

50 Games to the Left

NL North

Cubs are tops but are beatable. The Reds are in hot pursuit while the Pirates are holding on.

NL East

Mets are lollygagging in first hoping the Braves don't go on the warpath.

NL South

Florida is making a move while Ivan inches closer to 400 wins. Mexico City catches up then slides back.

NL West

Looks like a battle is looming in the stretch run as the Dodgers and D"Backs are tied while the Giants are playing unique rabbit.

Out of the playoff picture barring a huge miracle, the Brewers, Phillies, Colonels, Padres. 

AL North

Expos hold serve with the biggest lead of 10 games.

AL East

Boston is making a very slow long distance move from the pack.

AL South

Might be hard to believe but Kansas City has the most wins of any team. Didin't I tell you they would be a royal pain. Texas is trying to flank the herd but just keeps coming up short.

AL West

The Angels are out in front but the Sky Sox sees that crown. Neither have been playing that well of late. Meanwhile the Mariners are sailing closer again.

Out of the Playoff Picture unless that huge miracle arises: Blue Jays, Senators, Heads, Hot Pockets.

Friday, May 24, 2013

Decrying the Testament

Many owners have been crying foul play in the closer role as was I. The Mets at the beginning were the worst in blown saves but have rectified the situation and everyone else is catching up. Originally I had Ted Maxwell in the closer role at the beginning of the season and why not. He was 20 of 21 last season when moved into that role. This season was a nightmare in the closer role for the 6 year vet going 6 of 12 while losing 3 of those. Since being replaced, he has gone 6-1 but still has blown 2 more saves as a reliever.

Sherm Brock had a role to perform at the beginning of the season and that was to get us out of an inning when the starter failed. He was doing a splendid job of that. Once the frustration set in on the closer position I had two choices and I chose the lesser of the two evils. Brian Grim was the other choice, but I figured if Maxwell couldn't do the job, neither could he. Since Brock became the closer he has gone 15 for 15 in the save department.

Wow you might say, just think he could easily be 27 for 27 if he started the season in that role. Not so fast grasshoppers, what you don't realize is the fact he could be about 24 for 24 right now. That is right, due to his low stamina he sometimes doesn't get the last out in the 9th inning and another has to be called in. That is why everyone else in my pen has a save or two.

Harry Beltran of Florida is the save king at the moment as his record is 34 for 35. At the moment though, Florida may be in a bit of a slump as Ivan the Terrible is on a short sabbatical of sorts.  Ivan has 14 wins this season and leads the Majors in that department but has had his ups and downs. He is finding it difficult to get to that 400 win plateau.

Mark James is 12-9 this season, a far cry from his Cy Young season last year.  Looks like Reagan Mathews has decided to pitch this year with a 12-2 record and maybe recapture the Cy Young in the NL. The much maligned R.J. Bellhorn is 10-6 in Tampa Bay, maybe the change of scenery is helping  just takes awhile to sink in.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Apropos of Nothing - Chicago's Foreign Flavor

The conversation about the soon to be immortal Al Infante  got me thinking about Chicago's foreign flavor and history in signing International players.  In 26 seasons as owner of the Cubs, I've spent more than $182 Million on International players ($182,380,000 to be exact).  A quick review of the $10+ M players and how they impacted the Cubs, for better or worse:

Pat Suzuki, $26.6M - Arguably the greatest int'l player ever.  Still just 24 and in his 4th full season (was a mid/late season injury call up and played in 59 games in season 23, ruining ROY chances), has already amassed 216 HRs, 563 RBI, 529 R, 123 SBs, with a career .295 avg, .375 OBP and 1.011 OPS. As long as he stays relatively healthy (big if) could end up being on short list discussion of best players (although I think Al's Johnson will always be the best pos player ever).  Has almost single handedly thrust Cubs into perennial contention. There is no amount that would have been too much for this guy. Sometimes WIS is just about being lucky. Cubs were lucky they had more money than RobertBaron, the only other team with big time cash at the time of the signing

David Manzanillo, $16.7M - Has been a solid contributor to the Cubs recent success and its distant failures. Signed as a SS, had 40 errors in a dreadful season 20. 40! Was moved to 3B, where he won the GG in season 22, then played a few capable seasons at SS after getting past his yips. His poor SS play could be attributed to the fact he was born with spina bifada (53 health), which cost him 70 games in season 21. Weak metronome at the plate - .280, .345 OBP, 20 doubles, no power every year. Given the money and the fact that players like Willie Pascual, Kevin Yoshii, and Pablo Solano were signed for similar dollars, has to be considered a slight disappointment. 

Bernie Mendez, $15M - Mendez was a panic signing - one of those 'I don't know how may good Intl's there will be this year and I have low scouting' (Cubs spent 8 mil on intl that year). So panic signing, with a purpose. Mendez's greatest contribution to the Cubs was serving as the centerpiece in a trade that delivered Haywood Bell.  Bell's terrible health rating was a calculated risk for a team that had no star power and needed a legit bat. Bell has spent time on the DL for sure, but has averaged .296 ave, .372 OBP 30 HRs, 90 RBI over the past 9 season. needed consistency for a team that was directionless. 

Desi Guerrero, $14M - Way too early to tell with Desi - could be a GG 3B, but Cubs moved him as the centerpiece in the Jair Bennett deal. On a team rife with low health ratings, Cubs needed to move him for established, healthy vet for stability (editors note:  Bennett currently on the DL..what a dick). Good signing, but only ways Cubs don't regret dealing him is if Jair helps them win a WS (getting there doesn't count).

Jose Ortiz, $11.9M - One of the more frustrating players in Cubs history. Should have been a steal at this price, but was consistently inconsistent. Struggled mightily when Cubs were still in contention in season 12-15, then pitched his best when Cubs needed him as a #1 (seasons 16-18:  230 IP, 3.7 ERA, 1.34 WHIP). Unfortunately, his best was the stuff of a #3 starter. Biggest contribution to the Cubs was being centerpiece in trade for Michael Yammamoto and Tike Jeter.  Yamma was later included in blockbuster for Victor Morlan, while Jeter has established himself as one of the best back of the rotation starters in the league,despite his 0 GB/FB rating in a HR hitters park. Jeter has been good for about 180 IP, anywhere between a 3.5 - 4.5 ERA, and a WHIP hovering around 1.18 - 1.22. Not bad for a #5. 

Other Internationals of note:

Pedro Amaral, $6.4M - Had some extraordinary power numbers in seasons 10-12, then again in season 15. Ended up career with 474 HRs and 1952 hits. Pretty damn good player for the money - totally outperformed his ratings.

Ezdra Gutierrez, $5.3M - I'm assuming that this was a late season signing and the Cubs simply had money to waste. Either that, or Ezdra had compromising pics of Paco from his scouting trip to Mao.

Davey Puente, $3.6 - The Carlos Quintana of WIS. Had a few cups of coffee at the ML level, had some decent numbers, but never got a real chance.  Rightfully so - not a good player.

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Newest Head Case

The headlines took a deep header when Little Rock signed Al Infante for a the minute sum of $10.2M. How he went for so little is beyond me cried several owners that did not see him. His defense should easily give him many attempts at a Gold Glove for the catcher position. Hitting rates him up there with several of the big power hitters as he can blast the right handed pitchers. Only dent in his armor is the lack of speed but then who cares. Many are comparing him to Johnny Bench.

Friday, May 17, 2013

History Abound

I was looking through the old posts looking for something when I ran across the old Draft history analysis. I thought it might be nice to see how some players held up under early projections. The bad part, the first ones didn't have player links in their card yet.  But here is season 7.

1. Everett Hill: He lived up to my predictions rather easily and has enough hardware to open his own museum and is still playing. I said he would hit 50+ Home Runs and steal 40+ bases and hit .320. Sounded a bit optimistic huh? Well he hit 50+ 8 times and stole 40+ 8 times but only hit .320 or better 3 times. Not bad for a future HoFer who holds the Home Run record at 850 and counting at the moment. He wasn't a good fielder in LF as predicted.

2. Rick Hill: I somewhat failed at this one. He only hit 40+ Home Runs a couple times and even though he had the speed, didn't know how to use it. I expected his avg to be over .330, he only did that 5 times. He  played an uninspired 2B (before they changed the fielding rules) before being moved to LF.

3. Dom Tabaka: My write up wasn't all that enthusiastic but did accomplish my goals for him. He currently has 570 Saves and counting which will probably go over 600 before he retires which will put him second all time. Not bad for a lefty.

4. Claude Wallace: He actually panned the write up but he wasn't a bad player. He was consistent throughout his career though, what can you say, he was a 5 time All-Star and 4 time Silver Slugger in 12 seasons.

5. Bey Lynch: Truthfully he got caught up in a power vacuum and never got to live up to his billing other than the fact he  was a terrible catcher as reported.

6. Ismael Azocar: Has won 200 games in his career but write up was actually spot on.

10. Tim Loewer: Quietly became one of the best starting pitchers in the league with a 226-87 record and still compiling. His write up didn't disappoint.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Errfdogg Memorial League History Series - Owner Tenure

My recent post regarding owner's winning percentages got me thinking about the history of this world.  I'm going to try to post some articles over the next few weeks talking about some of the history of this world, but I figured I should start at my beginning in this world.

I joined this world in season 8, having never played HBD before.  Like many owners at WIS, I had read an article by the Sports Guy talking about Sim Baseball and I had checked that out, but I didn't love it.  HBD sounded more like something I would really like, having played Rotisserie Baseball and fantasy football and basketball since 1991.  I saw a post in the forums by Erffdogg for the MLB world and asked him if I could join.  He was reticent to take a newbie, but I gave him my history of fantasy sports and that I was a long-time commissioner of my fantasy baseball league.  He let me join and although I've played in other worlds, this world has always been my favorite.  It is the camaraderie of the owners that make this world great.  Erffdogg passed away in the middle of season 16.  We renamed the world in his memory and I really think that continuing this world in a positive way is a motivation for the owners who played with Erffdogg.  Like most people, I didn't know Erff outside of this game, but his passion for the game is his legacy to this world.

If you look at the tenure of the current owners in this world, it breaks down as follows:

OwnerSeason Joined
josepaco *2
wholck *8
dhyatt1080 *9
dakar *13
brianj000013 *25

As you can see, since Erffdogg's passing, 21 of the owners that were a member of this world continue to play.  I may have missed an owner that moved from one franchise to another.  I knew Yoker did that and accounted for that in the chart.

The world has been very stable.  A lot of the stability can be credited to Dilo, who, after Erffdogg, is the best commissioner of any world in which I have played.  I think the rest of the credit should be given to the owners in general, especially Firesign for his incredible work on the blog, and owners like Josepaco, SJR, VL, mal247, kpmarti, brucehearse, and Dilo, who make the chat board the best chat board in HBD.  I honestly intend to keep playing in this world for the rest of my life, as long as this core group of owners stays.  In my opinion, it's the best group of owners on WIS. 

I look forward to putting together some interesting articles about the history of this world in the coming weeks.  If anyone would like to suggest a topic, send it to me via trade chat.

Half Way point

Well, for some anyway it is the half way point, others still have a game to go. For most,  the All-Star break as halfway though things seem to change at that point. Just think, three days rest then it is the division mad house coming to a ball park near you.

NL North
The Cubs are ahead in the NL by 3 games. The owner has been questioning whether they are really that good. To me they haven't been playing like the winner they are. The Pirates are in second and are keeping up like a sneaky cat lying in wait. Truthfully I look for their demise in the second half. On paper the Reds are the better team and I think it is just a matter of time for them to reach second place where I think they will end up. The Brewers on the hand have played well but me thinks they are not going to catch anyone sleeping.

AL North
Montreal has taken everyone in the division by surprise I think. I said they were contenders in my opening analysis and I believe they will stay in first.  The Twins hold second place at the moment but 7 games back and the inability to win at home doesn't look like a winning combination for them. The Tigers look good on paper but just can't win, had a horrendous start they overcame but really can't sustain momentum. The Blue Jays and their new stars just aren't gelling but there is next season when they will.  Maybe they need to see Dr. Scholls.

NL East
The Mets have sneaked their way to a two game lead. For those in the know, this is probably the best Mets team ever assembled here but play like their predecessors. I thought at the beginning the Braves were still the team to beat but are experiencing the problem of not winning at home which doesn't bode well. The Fabulous Fillies are playing better than they really are so don't get your hopes up. The Colonels don't get any chicken wing jokes, they just aren't playing to their potential and a dismal 13-26 at home doesn't help their cause in the least.

AL East
Red Sox fans are fortunate they are in first place by two games. Haven't actually seen an entire division under .500 in a long time here at this stage of the game. One day it is Dover the next it is Boston. Baltimore looks out of it one day and then in the thick of things the next. What will happen here seems to be who gets hot and when, flip a coin..oh wait will have to be I Ching. The Senators are under-performing on offense but letting Castilla go to FA may have been a mistake.

NL South
Florida Marlins looked like they were gonna run away with the division and the #1 seed before halftime but the common struggle at home has kept them within reach. Mexico City has struggled to get to second place and keep their hopes alive. Houston was rather lively at the beginning of the season but the brutal punishment of the season has taken its weary toll I think. The Cards are better than their record indicates maybe but they are not ready to compete with their brethren.

AL South
The Royals are being a pain as I foretold but I really expected them to have more than a 5 game lead at this point. Tampa Bay is probably playing better than they should in all reality, look on the bright side, RJ has a winning record. Most thought that the Texas TardTankos was gonna play dead this season. News Flash: that rumor was false and a wild card spot is still the hot item on their agenda. The Heads look forlorn as things just didn't pan out the way they were suppose to.

NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers looked to run away with things early like the Marlins but have come back to earth. Arizona is the surprise to me, are they playing over their heads or are they actually that good. Me thinks they are that good. The San Francisco Giants are good if you ask me but may need some luck before the season is over. The Padres have actually made a couple delightful moves that have made them streaky and dangerous.

AL West
The Halos had their wings clipped from their early start and only hold a 3 game lead.
Colorado Springs had a season start they would like to forget and it looks like they have put it behind them. Seattle kept pace early but has been pulling back slowly. Helena has some very cold pockets as the microwave is on the fritz.

Sunday, May 12, 2013

Meanwhile at the IHOP

The Montreal Expos spent their life savings on Deven Wilfredo to the tune of $25M. Purportedly a RF OBP monster hitter with tons of speed. he was a bit reluctant to sign as he wanted to compete in the Olympics. Not sure about being a GG candidate in RF as his glove looks faulty but does have the arm and range. Getting him out at the plate could be a very tough thing to accomplish by any pitcher. Outstanding buy in my estimation.

Eliezer Bennett was tagged by the St. Louis Cardinals to hopefully be a future starter and offered $7.5M.  I know my scouting isn't wonderful but something must definitely be amiss if a pitcher that looks decent doesn't make double figures. Can that fourth pitch get dropped?

The St. Louis Cardinals also made another foray into the market for Don Chen.  A possible shutdown closer that does have good potential at a mere $4.6M. He may have slipped by the radar because of .....

Pascual James and his whopping $11.7M bonus to play future closer with the Little Rock Heads. He definitely looks like a shutdown closer in my books.

Draft Review

 I don't have the greatest scouting so I is a winging it a bit. With only 4 pitchers taken in the first 13 picks suggests that there wasn't great quality at that position. Many took the hard to fill positions early which has been the trend for a while.

1. Todd Terry, CF - Helena Hot Pockets: I do think he will be able to play CF though I don't think he will be a GG at the position. One very tough out at the plate with some power and a little speed to go with it. His biggest drawback is durability that I think will only make the low to mid 70's.
Grade: A

2. Herb Watson, 2B - Houston Astros: Yes he finally signed so the anguish has finally abated and a good nights rest is in order. Can he play an effective 2B is on the fans mind, most of me says yes but the scouts say there is an off chance it may not be the greatest thing since sliced bread. If his eye comes around at the plate, getting him out could be by total accident. Has some base stealing speed also which makes it even tougher. Where to put him in the lineup could take some high level collaboration, too much or not enough power for the first five slots which leaves the 6th spot which is actually too low maybe.
Grade: A+

3.  Santo Trinidad, P - Houston Astros: For a Starting Pitcher, may lack control and possibly splits but looks to have some very good pitches to round out the ground ball flame thrower. 
Grade: B

4. Chance Coleman, SS - San Diego Padres:  The scouts and I have argued as to whether he can actually play SS to a degree of confidence, it will be close. Eye, contact and decent splits with  useable speed  which should be a good fit for the Padre faithful.
Grade: A

5. Don Coke, P -  Philadelphia Phillies: The bad part before we start he is a lefty. He could be a super lefty or a premier lefty, only time will tell. Either way, pitching was a premium in this draft.
Grade: A

Ooops - Dentist intervention

6.  Troy LeBlanc, P - Toronto Blue Jays: I was thinking exceptional closer at first but low off speed gives me a little doubt but should have the control, splits and pitches to do the job as a setup man at the very least.
Grade: A

7. Bo Murphy, P - Little Rock Heads: Could be an interesting one once he matures a bit and gains confidence. Doesn't have the great control but the splits and pitches will be very good now if he just had some velo to go with it.
Grade: A

Ooops: Yard intervention

8. Michael Polcovich, CF - Louisville Colonels: The second CF taken in the draft already which makes this a bit scarey and they were both lefties so no 2B backup plan either. Which was the better pick? By my scouts the answer is rather simple, this guy is a decent power hitter with GG potential and speed. Could he be a 5 tool bust?
Grade: A+

9. Otis Mancuso, RF - St. Louis Cardinals:  Good eye and contact at the plate with above average splits and enough speed to steal a base here and there. Could be a good #2 hitter with the hit and run sign on. Fielding isn't all that bad but not GG quality.
Grade: A

10. Matthew Hermsen, SS -  San Francisco Giants: SS may or may not be a starring role for him as the glove has a long way to go.  My scouts tell me his hitting looks unrefined as I really can't make heads nor tails out of it in a truthful manner.  Taking a swag though I think it could be a good fit in the Bay area.
Grade: B

11.  Homer Miller, CF - Baltimore Orioles:  True to his name it looks like he can power the ball out of the park, how well remains to be seen.  Good eye, splits just above average in the end and contact better than I am seeing I think. CF is a possibility and secondary at 2B easily enough with maybe some 3B thrown in.  His Makeup could be problematic developing those skills.
Grade: A

Oops..intermission break for Doctor Who and Orphan Black...

12. Terrence Hernandez, SS - Milwaukee Brewers: If his arm strength comes around, he could be the best defensive SS in the draft. Good eye and contact with some power and above average splits makes for a good SS no matter what.
Grade: A

13.  Steven Day, CF - Dover Dung Beetles: Another CF and I imagine fourth down the list doesn't sound very compelling. Throws left-handed so the outfield it is for sure but as a quality CF might be a close stretch. In simple terms I am not ruling it out but seems quite thin. Hitting is not all that great but above average.  I am not enthralled by this pick.

Grade: B

14. Cookie Posada, P - Tampa Bay Rays: I have to disagree with my scouts on this guy. If his projected ratings are better than I am seeing which really isn't much then he could easily be a good #2 or #3 starter.
Grade: A

15. Spike Walker, P - Seattle Mariners:  Now how did the best looking pitcher in the draft fall so low, oh yeah he's a'h! That vsr could be better than I am seeing by a few points and it will make all the difference.

Grade: A

16.  B.C. Vazquez, RF - Minnesota Twins: Really rough with the ability to play RF with any quality and almost overly qualified for 1B, one ugly glove. Hitting is good  with a very good eye and splits with some pop but will probably lack the good contact.
Grade: B

17. Sandy Brock, RF - Pittsburgh Pirates: Again RF could be a stretch and may end up be relegated to 1B. Big power and contact with the eye and vsr good enough to reek havoc at the plate especially in Pittsburgh.
Grade: A

18. Pat O'Toole, 1B - Washington D.C. Senators: My scouts say he may not have the range for an adequate 1B as I see no growth but if he does it would be boon over the DH position. At the plate he has it all and could be the Home Run king soon enough. Now, just how did he slip this far?
Grade: A+

19. Billy Ramsey, SS - Montreal Expos: Not so sure about being a quality SS but simple enough to make it to 2B or 3B. Good eye and splits with average power and above average contact makes him a good pick.
Grade: A

20. Henderson Myers, P - Kansas City Royals: I have never been much of a fan with pitchers whose control is slated to be below average though I think he might make it to just above average. Everything else looks hunky-dory though I'm no sure he is a good fit in KC.
Grade: B

21. Vasco Aguilera, CF - Florida Marlins: His range may make up for inadequate glove but nothing will make up for his poor health (slight injury already from jacking off me thinks).  Hitting suits the Marlins though with the great eye and splits with everything else being average.
Grade: B

22. Jimmie Lombard, P - Arizona Diamondbacks: Even with his first two pitches looking better than I see the quality is marginal at best.
Grade: B

23. Carter Teut, P - Washington D.C. Senators: The Senators strike again with a possible shutdown closer. I say possible depending on whether his stamina increases like it should. Me thinks I would take the chance also.
Grade: A

24.  Vladimir Cruz, P - Mexico City Diablos Rojos: Luckily he is a reliever as his control might be outstanding with a good vsr as he is off speed with some whacky pitches. Hopefully with prejudice the 5th pitch gets dropped.
Grade: B

25. Eswalin Feliz, 2B - Boston Red Sox: To me 2B is going to be a huge stretch and might be more intuned to LF. Durability not making it into the 70's could also be a damper. Hitting isn't all bad which helps his value tremendously as he has a good eye, above average splits, some power and good contact.
Grade: B

26. William Bonham, SS - Boston Red Sox: At least their consecutive pick looks much better.  It looks like a doable ride in the SS position to me if he develops well.  Not a real big hitter which is a motif of most SS but he will hold his own rather well.
Grade: A

ooops..tiring break

27. Marvin Allen, P - Philadelphia Phillies: Could be a quite nice pick up if the end pitches are better than what I am seeing.
Grade: A

28.Bengie Franco, P - Anaheim Angels: Must be nice to have an older brother put you through college. Will that 5th pitch get dropped and will the control look like a ML pitcher surround this prospect however.
Grade: B

29. Don Naquin, P - Cincinnati Reds:

30.  Lou Brown, P - Colorado Springs Sky Sox: Hard finding a quality starting pitcher this late in the first round but it looks like the Sky Sox accomplished it very well.
Grade: A

31. DJ Kennedy, P - Atlanta Braves: Could be a project player that turns into a bust if the pitches don't develop.
Grade: B

32. Ron May, SS - Los Angeles Dodgers: I really don't see this guy venturing above the 3B realm defensively which isn't all that bad. Hitting could definitely be an adventure and may never make it beyond mediocre.
Grade: B

33. Rey Sellers, SS - Boston Red Sox:

34. Trevor Perkins, CF - Chicago Cubs: Took a while for him to sign for some reason. Could be a GG star in CF but then they already have one that doesn't want a GG. Good eye and decent contact with power just don't ask him to hit against lefties. Then again that can help him as he isn't the most durable.
Grade: A

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Owner Statistics

I always find the opinions of other owners to be interesting.  If I read an opinion from an owner, often I take a look at the owner's accomplishments and if I see they never make the playoffs, I minimize their statements.  Vice-versa, if an owner with significant accomplishments, like Dakar or Josepaco, has something to contribute, I'm all ears.  With today's various thoughts about budgeting, I began to take a look at the records of the people offering opinion and that got me thinking about the records of our owners.  I then analyzed the records of all owners and have some numbers to share.  Please note, I excluded any owner with less than 20 seasons played.  The number may be arbitrary, but I felt it was fair.  Here is a list of regular season winning percentages:

OwnerSeasonsWin pct
dakar *630.550
josepaco *480.535
wholck *540.522
dhyatt1080 *240.464

You'll note I added erffdogg's numbers as a point of reference, as I had previously referenced his success.  Of course, some people may believe win percentage doesn't tell the whole story.  Some people play to win the WS and if you can't do that, you need to rebuild, which involves a lot of losing.  I put myself into that group.  Consequently, here are some numbers that show the percentage of times an owner made it to the playoffs.

OwnerSeasonsPlayoffsPlayoffs as a % of seasons played
dakar *63390.619
josepaco *48240.500
wholck *54240.444
dhyatt1080 *2450.208

Guess what, these lists look pretty similar, but that makes sense.  You win more games, you make the playoffs more.  Well, what about winning the big one.  Here are those numbers:

OwnerSeasonsWSWorld Series as a % of seasons played
dakar *6360.095
josepaco *4830.063
wholck *5420.037
dhyatt1080 *2400.000

This chart is a little different, but I think the numbers speak volumes.  Other than this league's namesake, Dakar is clearly the winningest owner in this world and we all need to listen when Dakar speaks.  Chase39's advice from earlier today should be given a very close analysis.  Josepaco is a proven winner and pfontaine just needs to add one or two more WS trophy's to join Dakar as the elite owner in Erffdogg.

Lastly, I'd like to point out that I am better than average using these metrics, which is the only time I've ever been better than average.

Mets Budget

The Mets budget was one of necessity rather than desire. I knew I was going to have to play the FA market for a pitcher or two and I knew they wouldn't be cheap. I had already decided there was a good chance I would give up my first round choice on a type A pitcher or a 3B, 2B, CF.

That really drove my scouting budget down for HS/COL because I wasn't getting a first round selection and knew I would be almost at 100 for the second round since I had no type B players.

I normally keep my budget for Advance Scouting around $10M because they said they were looking into changing their scope. I am not sure how they would change their scope as they have nothing to do with training, coaching or playing, only player analysis.

As for International Scouting I was really wanting to go higher but with no prospect budget kinda useless don't ya think. I only use it mainly to find defensive PC catchers or the decent career minor league starting pitcher that falls through the cracks.

Erff didn't like the chaos and money that ensued for Internationals so he never played the market much until it was time to rebuild. He did have a knack for drafting that was kinda uncanny and usually held his scouting budgets rather high even if his prospect budget was low. He kept his Advance Scouting budget high because he was always trading his good vets for prospects and he wanted to make sure those prospects were good. He also kept his Training and Medical relatively on the low side. Back then however, players never really got injured very much unless their health was below 70.

As for scouting overall I have a formula that I use on prospects that works for me rather well though many disagree with it. I call it the 20/10 rule of thumb with some common sense.  Basically it goes like this, if a players difference from the current rating to a projected rating is greater than 20 then assume 20 max if it is greater than 30 then assume 25 max. If it is greater than 10 and less than 20 assume 10 max for all others assume 5 max. You must also throw in a plus or minus 3 for variance depending on the players Makeup. Remember, that is for 0 and 1st year players, have to do a minor calculation on those above that with year to year progression already available. Those with 4 years of service already, a chance of more than 5 is unlikely in a rating, normally 3 at the most.

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Poor RJ

Poor R.J. Bellhorn! I liked the chit chat  though but I haven't a clue what his problem is. I gave up on him finally. I was thinking a change of scenery would help but that didn't seem to do it either. The only success I ever had with him was in season 24. That year he was horrible as a starter, seem to recall something like 3-8 in 17 starts. He ended the season out of the pen going 9-2 with 4 blown saves. But other than that he failed everywhere I put him including the pen. I even tried moving him around in the starter positions, sometimes that seems to help for awhile but to no avail in the end.

I call him a premier lefty because his control is above 80, vsr is above 60 and has two super pitches a good third and a throw away. For a lefty that is about as good as it gets except for a super lefty (vsr above 70).  But in the end I have some right handers that aren't nearly as good that pitch better. I even have a couple more lefties that isn't nearly as good pitch better than him for that matter.

The only conclusion I can come up with is that he either needs to be a starter in a severe pitchers park like Petco or a hitters park working from the pen. The only thing that I can't rule out is that he might be trying to throw that fourth pitch for strikes because of the discipline of the pitching coaches. Though I deem that actually a little far fetched in all reality as his walk to strikeout ratio seems a bit high. I can rule out the fact that needing a high PC catcher isn't the problem.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Analyzing the Mets as a Team So Far

I have decided to look over the team and see what I can do to fix glaring problems. Most of them have been fixed already the best they could anyway.

Managerial Settings:
I did have the "Hit and Run" set to Aggressive which I have changed to Average. The reason for the change is that I only actually have two base stealers on the team but most are moderate to low in that department. I was hoping with a better 1B coach things would be a bit better but after 40 games and a 24-14 record it might not be that advantageous.

The second problem evolved around the Save record, 9 of 16  just isn't cutting the mustard. I haven't a clue about this one as to why but Ted Maxwell should be one of the best in the business. The problem stopped after I set his "Inning Available" to 9th even though he only entered the game one time before the 9th. A record of 0-3 and 5 of 9 just isn't what he should be capable of.


Egads (a nicer term)! Almost last in the NL in making errors. How can this be from a defensive minded owner? We are tied for second in Plus Plays in the NL, does that offset things a bit? Not really to me. Have I given up on defense for more offense? That is partly to blame in a way maybe.

Clarence Valentin was the GG award winner at 2B last year. He had a stroke in the off season and reported to spring training losing 6 points in Range. Nothing else declined, just Range, caused me to scratch my head. So back to John McInerney playing 2B. I am beginning to wonder if I need to have the soil tested at 2B because he has been losing Range also, just seems odd and it isn't happening anywhere else. Anyway, Range at 2B is a bit of a problem.

3B hasn't been a joy ride either as Miguel Otanez has been holding down the fort here. He just barely makes the minimum requirement at the position. His offense has been keeping him there so far this season.

CF is being played by Felipe Peralta. He isn't horrible at the position but his glove is very questionable. I would rather see him play 2B or 3B though.

SS is being played by Ronn Penny. His glove is just a point under but seems to generate the errors for some reason.

C has been played mostly by Pepper Murton. His not so great glove and inconsistent arm hasn't wowed the fans but his offense has.

When was the last time you saw a Mets team 2nd in the long ball category? Well, we do get the hits, unfortunately it is either a dinger or a single.

The starting staff hasn't been all that bad though I am having difficulty having them win games, 21 quality starts so far, we only had 37 all of last season. Finding a 5th starter has proved more difficult than anything else.

The pen has either been real good or real bad depending on how things are going. Have my problem children but they are better than what their stats indicate.