Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Anatomy of a Failure: The Milwaukee Brewers First Half

The unexpectedly abrupt and significant demise of the Brewers has been discussed, but we thought we'd peel the onion a little to examine how the Brewers have fallen so far, so fast.

At this pace, the Brewers will fall from 92 wins all the way to 61.

Ramon Dong hit .364 last season with 23 HR and 35 SB. This year, he's on pace for 4 HR and his OPS is down a whopping .264, including .081 off of his average.

Each year, the Brewers think, "this is the season," for Pascual Berroa. His OPS is down .070 to an anemic .674. He hit 23 HRs two seasons ago, and is on pace for 3 this season. All at age 25.

Zachrey Jerzembeck has seen his walks cut by 1/3, his SBs cut in half and his OPS is down .090. At 24, the Brewers had been expecting nothing but steady improvement.

Last year, Pedro James hit .317-40-135-32SB. This year, at age 24, he's on pace for 21 HR and 13 SB. OPS is down .249. Strikeouts up, walks down.

In Season Seven, Gregg Presley had a breakout season, going .301-25-101 with 25SB. This season, the 24-year old is on pace for .276-4-64 with 14 SB. His OPS is down .223.

For a team with a young pitching staff, the Brewers needed their offensive pillars to stand tall. Instead, the team's OPS has dropped .074 since last season.

Which brings us to the pitching, which has been worse - a lot worse - than expected.

Overall, the Brewers are giving up .70 runs more this season than last. Which is not unexpected when the average age of the rotation is just under 24.

But it is hard to project when a player foolishly inked to a megadeal, like Jumbo Benitez, sees his ERA balloon by two runs.

Young Richard Park has also suffered the same two-run ERA inflation.

Curtis Redding has actually been worse - his ERA is up more than three runs from last season.

Rocky Wilkins - a full two runs worse this season.

So above all, the failure of the Brewers was a failure of the imagination in putting together a team that could be reasonably competitive.

At this point, the Brewers are committed to a youth movement and have indicated they will discuss any player on the roster.

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