Friday, May 23, 2008

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

Season Seven Record: 92-70, .568; 3rd Place, NL North; out of playoffs
Key Departures: Rich Munoz, Harold Traynor, Wes Kelly, Roy Hall, Patrick Snyder, Cliff Allensworth
Key Additions: Alfonso Lee, Philip Ruffin, Bernie Espinosa, Jimmie Sardinha, Albert DeLeon, Dario Irabu, Joshua James

Will make the playoffs if: Offense performs to expectations, they find reliable starting pitching beyond Donald Satou, and the bullpen flushes fewer leads.
Will miss the playoffs if: None of their young starters emerges as dependable, Irabu and J. Sardinha are Gasoline Alley and the offense struggles against the pitching rich NL North.

Outlook: 95-67, 3rd Place NL North; Wild Card winner
Team Song: Big Log

Year Three of the re-tooling project in Milwaukee continues, and few teams were more active in the trade and Rule V markets than Harvey's Wallbangers. While the Brewers have won 88 and 92 games the last two seasons, in the ultra competitive NL North that's been no better than third place, out of the playoffs.

As was the case last season, this year's team will rely on a potent, versatile and dynamic lineup and hope for the best from its pitching staff. Last year, the Brewers had 10 players with at least 10 HR and 10 SB. They should see a similar balance this season with a number of players that play multiple positions.

However, last year's team suffered through a franchise-worst WHIP (1.46), and the team blew 26 saves (41/67, 61% conversion rate). Those numbers will need to improve if the team intends to stay in the Wild Card race, let alone compete with the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds, long the class of the division.

The offseason was spent re-tooling the bullpen, and evaluating a quivver of young starters that weren't ready for the Big Leagues last year yet kept the Brewers within hailing distance of the Wild Card.

A pleasant surprise last season was Milkwaukee's defense which was tops in the league. It will need to be again if the pitching is as expected.

Following is a position-by-position look at the Season Eight Lagers.

C: Nerio Ford has achieved consistent excellence and has a career OPS north of 1.000. However, he's 31 and his defense is average. Look for him to finally give way to Hector Ramirez, who had perhaps the finest Spring of any player in the League.

1B: Aging Ramon Dong showed everyone last year that despite missing most of Season Six with injury, he has a lot of life left in his offense, winning the Silver Slugger. He had an OBP of .450 and for the first time since Season One posted an OPS more than 1.000. He also stole a career high 35 bases to go along with 23 HR and 90 RBI. He's moving from the OF to 1B.

2B: Giovanni King is the top returner and has speed (29 SB) and pop (13 HR). But the team also signed Cincy's Alfonso Lee to provide some competition for the job, and depth at other positions defensively. Offensively, this is Milwaukee's weakest position.

SS: Matt Wise had a great rookie season ended by a lengthy injury that also cost him a Gold Glove. He'll play against righties. Bernie Espinosa looks like an upgrade on offense over Wes Kelly.

3B: Recently rolled the dice by trading Munoz and shifting the multitalented but enigmatic Pascual Berroa to 3rd. Many feel Berroa should be a prototypical leadoff hitter with the chance to hit 20 HR and steal 20 bases. However, he's never reached that potential. Perhaps his new mega 5-year, $41mm deal will inspire him. He can also play 2B, SS and CF. Philip Ruffin is the backup and can play several positions.

OF: 24-year old Gregg Presley had an impressive first season, going .301-25-101 with 19 SB. He's also a premium defender. He needs to get on base more. Matthew Hollins had a surprise rookie season playing only against LHP, with a .958 OPS in 245 ABs as a 21- year old. He figures to improve on all numbers and has a great eye. 24-year old Zachrey Jerzembeck already has nearly 2000 ML ABs, and is a centerpiece of the offense. Last season he went .314-36-115 with 36 SBs. He needs to cut down on his 21 CS though. Pedro James had a breakout season with 40 HR and 135 RBI to go along with a .317 average and 1.022 OPS. Only 24, he also swiped 32 bases in 37 attempts.

SP: Just 25, Donald Satou missed five starts with an injury, but still managed to win 17 games (7 losses), with a 3.50 ERA. He has not looked as strong in the Spring, but last year had three complete games and has the makeup of an ace. Cookie Sardinha is probably the team's #2 and went 13-7 last season. Jumbo Benitez was 11-5 last year and at 27 is a veteran on this staff. 22-year old Richard Park looks ready to turn a corner. Veteran Curtis Redding will compete. Rocky Wilkins is a year away. Stud prospect Joaquin Villano probably needs at least one more year in AAA. Same for David Espinosa and Benji Santiago. The team had just traded for Joshua James, who is expected to fill the #3 or 4 starter spot.

Bullpen: They traded for Jimmie Sardinha to be the closer, and when he faltered in the Spring they upgraded the position bringing back Dario Irabu and handing him his first closer's job. He figures to be an upgrade, though, after last year's parade of Mike Schooler Impersonators. Other arms in the bullpen include Albert DeLeon, Edgard Espinosa and Oswaldo Felix.

No comments: