Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Expand Roster?

It is that point in the season that the roster can expand. But the question in most owners mind is who and why.

First of all you can only bring players up from the minors that are on the 40-man roster. Is it worth putting a player on the 40-man roster this year or wait till next year? It may not be worth putting a player on the 40-man roster and start his option clock just yet.

Second, you need to make sure your minor league roster can support having him leave the roster while they are still playing or until after their season is over. If you skeletonize your minor league team, what happens if you have a sudden injury?

When to demote a player back to the minors is a difference of opinion. If the player was called up at roster expansion and demoted at the end of the season should not incur a demotion penalty of any kind. I have even waited till the beginning of the following season to move them back without penalty. It has to do with ML service time however in conjunction with the option, so one has to be careful in that respect. It must be less than a year so I am told. You can get that info from the player card by running the mouse over the ML years. So, if a player was called up in the season due to injury then called up at roster expansion, he could incur a penalty if he isn't sent back down at the end of the season, but check the service time because he may have been called up previously.

Some hard rules I try to use in whether to bring a player up.

The first thing I look at is whether the player is going to stick with the ML roster next season especially if he is under the age of 24. Just to bring a player up for a few games for ML experience won't help that much.

The second thing I look at is how rested the player is. If he already has 500 AB's or more or a lot of innings pitched, how successful will he be? It would be better to wait until ST.

The third thing is look at his stats carefully. How close is he to maxing his projections? I use OVR for that, if he is within 4 or less then he is a candidate regardless of age.

The fourth thing to look at is need. Do I need them to rest the starters for a few games, especially those in the playoffs. Those not in a playoff race, like me, should be hesitant to bring a player up unless he will be on the ML roster next season.

Another thing to look at is old useful vets some have in the minors. The ones in their last year of their contract. I bring them up to change their status even if I don't want them. What do I mean by that? If they are in the minors at the end of the season, they are even more useless next season. If I bring them up, then they will either be FA or arb-eligible. If they become arb-eligible, you are going to dump them anyway so no big deal. But what if they go FA? You could get lucky enough to actually snag a type B draft pick instead of letting him go for free. I am not sure if a 6 year minor league FA changes his stock in this regard without 1 year of ML experience at least but could become arb-eligible so be careful there. For those that don't know, a 6 year minor league FA is a player that has been on a team for 6 years and never put on the 40-man roster and will become an unrestricted FA at the end of the season if he isn't.

Some examples from my team:

I don't have any position players I want to bring up. I have five that could be but to what end?

Tony Brown and Don Webster could be brought up and both could be very good 1B. I think they are both under-rated a bit which doesn't help. I have them in an experiment because their ratings are so close together. My thinking is that Webster will be the better hitter in the end, after next season I will know for sure. Both are within my ranges to bring up except age, but to what end? They won't be on the ML roster next year because I got Albert and Rodrigo and a host at their bench positions.

Julian Giles was on the ML roster last year, he took a demotion penalty when I sent him down in the spring. He was disappointing at the ML level and I was hoping he would improve at AAA, that didn't happen either. Maybe ST next year will wake him up.

Posiedon Marte, I have been considering and my pen could use the help. I can't though because I have too many injuries suddenly at AAA. I have him as a SP, I know he isn't one, but with a 5 or 6 man rotation, you can double his pitches and get away with it for a little while. But I was going to call him up because I was thinking he would be a fine addition to the pen next year. But then I noticed his distance between current and projections and decided it would be better to stay at AAA for another year unless he has an outstanding spring.

Lucas Thomson had a good AAA campaign this season and is the optimal candidate for a call up. It will just have to wait until the AAA season is over. I am not exactly sold on the fact he could be a ML pitcher in the first place even in the pen. I just don't like left-handed pitchers very much unless their vsR is in the upper 60's but will give him a shot next season I think. He might be the only I bring up just to see how he does.

Butch King, I did bring him up. I have been trying to get him into ML shape since I acquired him. I picked him up off the waiver wire a few seasons ago I think and got a huge DITR hit on him. He is under-rated to his defense. But getting him innings was tough because his control was so outlandishly low and his makeup doesn't help to make the projections. The object here is to get his control up a couple points between now and the end of spring training next year along with another point here or there. He could become a very good Setup B pitcher if it happens.

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