Sunday, January 18, 2009

Inside the Numbers

I was wondering if someone didn't know where the numbers I used came from. I didn't just pull it out of thin air by the way. Matter of fact I examined 12 or more worlds before using it because I thought it was a joke at first. But then I saw the correlation to the report and a teams record in their standings and it held true throughout 95% of the time. Matter of fact I even checked for three days on a team vs team match up in two worlds using the report and can predict who is going to win a game 70% of the time. Is that a little preordained or what? Take my last game against the Reds, I won 1-0. However I expected to lose that game by a run or two. Why? My overall offense was 3 points lower and pitching was about even but I have a clear advantage in defense. I won because Owen went down with an injury that left my pitching staff in control. The report I am referring to is the Franchise Rankings report. It can tell you many things, I just never paid much attention to it before. It is more of a bell-weather than stats even.

Ok, the numbers are the ranking from the snapshot to correlate a teams ranking and their standings in the division. If there are more than one listed as a 1, 2 , and so on, that means they are tied in the overall rankings and I am not one to say that one is better than the other, but the teams are ranked in WIS order. Since I don't have a snapshot of the teams on opening day, I can only say that some teams overalls have changed due to trades, injuries and such.

Example: Since I am facing the Reds I will use me as an example. My overall rating is a 67. It is actually better than that but I got an injury or two. My starting line up is a 70 and is actually weak against right-handed pitchers and I think my downfall. Though there is a little contrast because I have a battery of left-handed hitters which makes things a bit awkward in determining match ups. Starting rotation is a 73 and I have a 79 rated pitcher starting. For the next game I have a 59 rated pen, most are in fatigue status with all the extra inning and 1-run games they hit and haven't recovered well. The Reds starting line up is a 76. I am facing Yamil, 87 rated and a 68 rated pen. Giving up 6 points in offense, 8 in starting pitching and 9 in the pen. Look for a score of about 10-3 in favor of the Reds at least. It should be 3-0 or 4-1 thru 5 innings. The pen will get blasted when Olivares pitches late, say the 7th or so. Don't ask, Olivares looks better on paper than his actual pitching.

No comments: