Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Reading Victor Seanez

Okay sports fans, time to tear apart an IFA using my 20/10 rule and Victor Seanez looks like an ideal candidate. He looks like he could be a good left handed ML pitcher one day. My scouting is $10M in the INTL department so the projected can't be trusted all that much.

Remember you have to trust the current ratings.
Durability - the increase is 10 points, so that should be fine and obtainable and hopefully correct.
Patience - an increase over 20 points so I question that, but with the starting point of 57 it doesn't matter that much, 10+ point gain will be good.
Health - is high already with no increase, so that is already okay.
Makeup - is low with not much gain and is a huge turnoff, of course this could be due to scouting. Even with a 10 point increase is far below what I like to see for a pitcher.
Stamina - almost a 30 point increase and 20 points is acceptable.
Control - 20+ points but expect between 10 to 15 max and is acceptable enough.
vsL - is already good enough and any increase will do.
vsR - shows a 20 point increase, a 10 point increase is not enough as you really would like to have 13 to 15 minimum. Not out of the way though but could be tough to get.
GB - could be a little light for my taste but is in the GB range already.
Pitches - Has 4 decent pitches and a rarely used throw away but they really don't get much better.

His potential shows to be an overall 83 by my scouts, but after applying my rule his potential is about a 75 max and a long way from that 83. He is only going to gain about 5 points total from fielding and general and about 10 from a pitching standpoint. The worrisome point is his makeup which will hurt him the most.

If the scouts are wrong about his makeup and pitch potential than what is shown, then he becomes a very good buy. The question is, do I take a chance? Well, with the money I have got to play with, there just isn't much reason to go after him above his opening price as the war could go to $10M+ plus easily. I made an initial offer to mark his appearance then withdrew it. The reason is to see how many cycles he goes through before signing. If he gets a good offer, he may sit there hoping for a bidding war for three days or it could be three days of bidding war. Which will it be?

Ok, now that he has signed I can tell you what my advance scouting sees at 16.

His Overall shows to be a 77, not far from the 75 I predicted.
His Durability turned into a negative misdemeanor and the 10 points is no where to be seen.
His Patience seems to report well, not as high as before but still over 20.
His Makeup showed an increase of an unhelpful 3 points that is not existent, so that is no help.
His Stamina dropped to a 24 point increase and 15+ might be the best he will develop.
His control turned out to be a 15 point increase possible, chances are good he will 10.
His vsL was already good enough and shows a 17 point increase, probably about 10 to 12 will be max.
His vsR was a problem and the projected dropped to 14 points acceptable if he gets there, the drop as I expected.
His GB potential dropped 2 points not much of a big deal really as 5 should be easy to get.
His pitches was a bit of a surprise as pitch 1, 2 and 4 actually increased in potential a little but really needs to max them out and that could be tough for a couple of them.

The Dover Dung Beetles signed him for $9.6M, I actually expected a little more than that but not much. If he develops well, he could be a very good starter for the money as I think it was a good buy. Grade A

For those wondering, he showed up on the PM cycle on 9/1 and signed signed 9-6 on the PM cycle which makes it 29 cycles if I counted correctly. I wonder how many cycles he set there with the high bid?

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