Ever wonder how you could simulate pitching in this game? I have wondered this myself as to what formula they use, it is a big secret by the way. I have read the forums and at first I didn't believe the actual pitches were window dressing. But then after thinking about the biometric programming behind throwing one pitch would be ludacris, so it is in all reality window dressing. So I figured I would take a stab at how it would be done and came up with two possibilities.
I thought how it is done in the real world. Ever notice watching TV that every now and then you see a pitcher looking at a binder of notes? What would this book contain? I would think it holds almost an encyclopedia of knowledge. For one, there is probably one for every team home and away that contains more biometric information you can imagine on each batter and their tendencies and personal notes. I am wondering when gloves will have the back band that is actually a computer to tell players this information so they can adjust accordingly. Ballplayers may actually have to have a real IQ one of these days. A lot of times the pitch to be thrown is signaled into the catcher from the bench and this might be more of how it will done in the future. Usefulness of a PDA, egads, baseball and the information age combined. I wonder if advanced scouting may play a role.....
Anyway, after much thinking and drawing my own conclusions to how this is done, doesn't make sense all the time. There are too many factors involved to completely catch them all and this is only a guess. As I said, I came up with two possibilities.
First some things that everyone can find out using the extended function. Just about every plate appearance a batter gets about 3 to 4 pitches on average, but that is a little deceiving in all reality. Pitchers throw the same number of pitches also. I was even amazed that the great Pulido threw an average of 3.71 pitches per batter. Of course that can be a little deceiving also. Using Yamil as an example though tells me that a pitcher throws more pitches later in a game due to tiredness. So it would seem this is tracked also and abilities do deteriorate over the course of a game. It is also possible that this actually lends a hand in the effectiveness come playoff time, something they call dead-arm syndrome these days. And then there is an assumption to be made of course, a pitcher throws a maximum of 5 pitches to any batter per plate appearance. There is one other thing I can't account for accurately is the different type of pitchers in velocity.
Possibility 1: The first is the aggregate way, which I understand was the original concept in the beginning. However, was just the pitches added up or was all the stats combined to one score for a pitcher? My feeling is that it would have been just the non-zero pitches. Then add in the catchers PC ability to come up with a total aggregate score. Notice, I said non-zero, so if a pitcher has non-zero pitches, what would the zeros contain. I would assume, they would repeat the other pitches until all five pitches are populated. They could also be populated with the pitchers best pitches also regardless of where they fall. Then pitches would be thrown until the batter made contact, walked or struck out. Other factors, control, splits, GB/FB, velocity and ball park, wouldn't come into play until the batter determination is made.
Possibility 2: I kind of think this is how it is done currently. Once again, since I assume that a pitcher only throws 5 pitches in the resolution of an AB. The non-zero pitches are populated with either repeating the pitches until they are filled in some manner. Each pitch is then given a modifier based on the PC of the catcher. If 50 PC is ML level then that would be a 0 modifier, the modifier wouldn't really amount to much until it reached 75 (under 50 would be negative but wouldn't really hurt until under 40). But then again, the PC of a catcher may not be involved until after the AB is resolved. Since the PC of a catcher helps a pitcher in both ERA and OAV (OAV is a little more important to me), I think it comes more into play of what happens when contact is made.
The part of a PC catcher is two fold in my books. First, it will not help to have a PC catcher unless his PC is 75 and above. I prefer 80 and above myself. Second, the PC catcher is actually next to useless if his defensive capabilities are not above ML standards. The reason you ask, 99% of good PC catchers come with a big negative, they can't hit. One thing about any ML player is, he must be able to do two out of three things well at any position. A defensive PC catcher will stop base thefts, throw runners out and cover the bunt as well as help the pitchers stats. But if your infield defense is lacking, a defensive PC catcher isn't going to help a pitcher all that much. As alluded to in possibility 2, there will be more ground balls by a GB pitcher, the defense will need to field those and turn the double play. Yes indeed, there are more DP's with a PC catcher if the defense is there. The same applies to a FB pitcher also, actually they can get a few more ground balls thrown in. I am not sure that a PC catcher helps a strike out pitcher as it comes up inconclusive.
Passed balls by the way appears to based on glove more than anything. I thought maybe it could be an extremely weak pitch and/or control that might cause one. But after doing some heavy research, it is the glove rating that causes most of them and could happen at any time to any catcher. Of course they are only reported in the box score at the worst possible times. Ask sjr, he lost 2 games to Louisville that could be a direct result of a weak gloved catcher.
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