Sunday, August 16, 2009

Another Little Tidbit

One of the most obscure ratings of a hitter is his push/pull rating. It is hard to explain all the ins and outs of this rating but you can think of it like this. A rating of 50 means that the player will hit to Dead CF 70% of the time or more during the season. If he has a rating of 0-15 or 85-100 he will pounce on the CIF's and COF's. A rating of about 35-40 is at the SS or 2B. 55 and 45 hits the thin infield gaps while 25 and 75 the deep infield gaps. Knowing where the players hit if you combine that with scouting against your opponents defense can help. Ball park factors also come heavily into play. This why some players do better on some teams than others. Like a -2 ball park factor in doubles does not help a doubles hitter very much. I consider a doubles hitter as any player that has a power of 45-65 if you are wondering.

So where did the Indians go wrong in this aspect? Early in the season, the lineup was not in the right configuration to start with. My two big power hitters were the only players getting home runs and doubles on the road. In all reality, nobody else was getting on base with any regularity. After the lineup was brought into the right alignment, I went 13-7 over the last 20 road games and fatigue hurt me more in those 7 losses than anything else other than poor pitching.

As an example, Hideki Huang has a push/pull of 38 so he hits to the SS in most instances against right handed pitchers (2B vs a lefty) with a 65 power that means many of them go over the SS's head into the outfield gap. If the ball park factor for doubles is at a -2, chances are that it goes for a long single or depending on other ball park factors could go for a home run or triple. However, he was at lead off most of the season because of his speed and that was wrong. Now for more important info, when he hit the ball, at least 60% of the time the ball was on the ground. Knowing this info can be important if you know how good the opponents 2B or SS is. Having a weak range or glove means the ball can get by them or they make an error and his speed can come into play. He ended with a .262 average on the road, up over 25 points from first half play. A big change from lead off to the sixth spot in the order. The biggest change was with Karim Quevedo when he was moved out of the 2 slot to the 5th spot and his push pull of 46. That 46 is important because it is generally out of range for a 2B or SS. Of course that was percipitated when Bart Ross was brought up with his ability to walk.

Ok, I can hear a question brewing, how do I know he hit the ball on the ground 60% of the time. He has a rating of 1.15, 1.00 means 50% in the air. Less than one means more balls are in the air. About .80 a player is most likely to hit it in the air like most of the time, while 1.25 and above is a worm burner. Normally this can be discerned from the power rating but there are anomalies.

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